Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-NG-001 (narrative_whipsaw, medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-15 18:10 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Near-term natural gas futures retain an upward bias as LNG-linked geopolitical/supply-risk narratives remain active (Qatar / Ras Laffan / transit risk). 62 up accelerating 6h false 68
natural_gas B-NG-002 Over the next 24h, the balance of evidence still favours higher prices, but gains look headline-dependent rather than storage/weather-confirmed. 58 up stable 24h false 68
natural_gas B-NG-003 Reversal/pullback risk is meaningful because the dominant drivers are geopolitics (fast narrative decay) and explicit US storage/weather tightening signals are not prominent in the admitted set. 57 mixed accelerating 24h false 68

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260315T181000Z-natural_gas",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-15T18:10:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term natural gas futures retain an upward bias as LNG-linked geopolitical/supply-risk narratives remain active (Qatar / Ras Laffan / transit risk).",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "T-003",
 "T-006",
 "T-050",
 "T-004"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, the balance of evidence still favours higher prices, but gains look headline-dependent rather than storage/weather-confirmed.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "T-049",
 "T-002",
 "T-003",
 "T-006"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-003",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Reversal/pullback risk is meaningful because the dominant drivers are geopolitics (fast narrative decay) and explicit US storage/weather tightening signals are not prominent in the admitted set.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "T-004",
 "T-003"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002",
 "B-NG-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "type": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Directional bias is being driven primarily by geopolitical/LNG-supply narratives; these can reverse quickly on headline flow."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "type": "data_sparsity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Limited explicit storage/weather-demand tightening evidence present in admitted signals; conviction capped accordingly."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-003",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "type": "contradiction_spike",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Mixed sentiment labels across relevant trends (positive market/demand vs negative geopolitics) elevate interpretation ambiguity, though net pressure remains bullish."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh LNG supply-risk headlines persist over the next 6h without offsetting evidence of demand destruction or rapid de-escalation."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional geopolitical headlines arrive (or de-escalate) within the next 2\u20136h window, expect sharp swings and higher reversal probability."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If a high-authority, very fresh (<2h) counter-signal emerges indicating de-escalation or confirmed supply normalisation at key LNG nodes."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction rises materially (>=0.55) while fresh evidence count remains low, indicating noisy/unstable signal quality."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 44,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 7,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 7,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=natural_gas.",
 "Recency weighting used evidence_bundle.evidence_recency_proxy.newest_timestamp when present; otherwise trend.timestamp_found.",
 "Admitted set was dominated by LNG/geopolitical/supply-chain narratives; explicit US storage/weather-demand signals were not prominent, increasing fragility."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}