Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-NG-001 (narrative_whipsaw, medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-15 18:10 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-001 |
Near-term natural gas futures retain an upward bias as LNG-linked geopolitical/supply-risk narratives remain active (Qatar / Ras Laffan / transit risk). |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
68 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-002 |
Over the next 24h, the balance of evidence still favours higher prices, but gains look headline-dependent rather than storage/weather-confirmed. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
68 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-003 |
Reversal/pullback risk is meaningful because the dominant drivers are geopolitics (fast narrative decay) and explicit US storage/weather tightening signals are not prominent in the admitted set. |
57 |
mixed |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
68 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260315T181000Z-natural_gas",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-15T18:10:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term natural gas futures retain an upward bias as LNG-linked geopolitical/supply-risk narratives remain active (Qatar / Ras Laffan / transit risk).",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"T-003",
"T-006",
"T-050",
"T-004"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, the balance of evidence still favours higher prices, but gains look headline-dependent rather than storage/weather-confirmed.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"T-049",
"T-002",
"T-003",
"T-006"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Reversal/pullback risk is meaningful because the dominant drivers are geopolitics (fast narrative decay) and explicit US storage/weather tightening signals are not prominent in the admitted set.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"T-004",
"T-003"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002",
"B-NG-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"type": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Directional bias is being driven primarily by geopolitical/LNG-supply narratives; these can reverse quickly on headline flow."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"type": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Limited explicit storage/weather-demand tightening evidence present in admitted signals; conviction capped accordingly."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"type": "contradiction_spike",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Mixed sentiment labels across relevant trends (positive market/demand vs negative geopolitics) elevate interpretation ambiguity, though net pressure remains bullish."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh LNG supply-risk headlines persist over the next 6h without offsetting evidence of demand destruction or rapid de-escalation."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If additional geopolitical headlines arrive (or de-escalate) within the next 2\u20136h window, expect sharp swings and higher reversal probability."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If a high-authority, very fresh (<2h) counter-signal emerges indicating de-escalation or confirmed supply normalisation at key LNG nodes."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction rises materially (>=0.55) while fresh evidence count remains low, indicating noisy/unstable signal quality."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 44,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 7,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 7,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=natural_gas.",
"Recency weighting used evidence_bundle.evidence_recency_proxy.newest_timestamp when present; otherwise trend.timestamp_found.",
"Admitted set was dominated by LNG/geopolitical/supply-chain narratives; explicit US storage/weather-demand signals were not prominent, increasing fragility."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}