Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker:
- regime_state: Unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: core_driver_coverage_gap (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-15T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | B-NG-001 | Near-term LNG/geopolitical disruption risk is adding a risk premium that biases natural gas futures upward. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 58 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-002 | European-linked gas supply geopolitics (e.g., Russia/Gazprom dispute/infrastructure narratives) is supportive of global gas volatility and upward skew. | 55 | up | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-003 | If supply-stability narratives dominate and escalation risk fades, the recent risk premium can unwind quickly, pushing natural gas futures back toward flat/down. | 38 | mixed | fading | 6h | false | 58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B_natural_gas_20260315T120000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Natural gas futures", "market_code": "natural_gas" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "natural_gas", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-NG-001", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Near-term LNG/geopolitical disruption risk is adding a risk premium that biases natural gas futures upward.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Qatar / Ras Laffan disruption narratives (LNG supply-chain risk)", "Broader Middle East escalation risk and maritime security narratives (risk premium channel)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Signals implying supply stability / risk normalisation (single-source / low-diversity items)" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-NG-002", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "European-linked gas supply geopolitics (e.g., Russia/Gazprom dispute/infrastructure narratives) is supportive of global gas volatility and upward skew.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Gazprom geopolitical dispute thread", "Energy infrastructure disruption narratives" ], "contradicted_by": [ "No direct confirmation of immediate physical flow impact inside this payload" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-NG-003", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "If supply-stability narratives dominate and escalation risk fades, the recent risk premium can unwind quickly, pushing natural gas futures back toward flat/down.", "probability_pct": 38, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Supply stability / institutional commentary signals (low diversity in this payload)", "Mean-reversion after risk spikes" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Multiple fresh geopolitics/LNG risk signals with recent update timestamps" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-NG-001", "B-NG-002" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "core_driver_coverage_gap", "severity": "medium", "market": "natural_gas", "details": "Weather/storage/pipeline-flow/production-outage drivers are not strongly represented in admitted evidence; regime inference leans on geopolitics/LNG narratives." }, { "flag": "geopolitical_risk_premium_whipsaw", "severity": "medium", "market": "natural_gas", "details": "Direction is supported by escalation/disruption risk which can reverse rapidly on de-escalation headlines." }, { "flag": "low_diversity_singletons_present", "severity": "low", "market": "natural_gas", "details": "Several VIP/risk items are single-source/low-diversity; treated as weak counterweight rather than primary signal." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "medium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "Additional fresh (<=6h) corroboration of LNG supply disruption / Middle East maritime escalation narratives." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "high", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Any rapid de-escalation headline or confirmation of restored LNG operations that compresses the risk premium." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "medium", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "A high-authority opposing signal (<=2h) indicating de-escalation or confirmed supply stabilisation, paired with rising contradiction." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "low", "action": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "If incoming evidence remains sparse and directional score returns to the neutral band (|score| < 20) for multiple hours." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 12, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 32, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -8, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": -8, "velocity_score": -20, "acceleration_score": -20, "contradiction_ratio": 0.38, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 35, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 4, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": 12, "acceleration_score": 32, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 24, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 4, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -12, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 24, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 4, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 24, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 4, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 24, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 4, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 24, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 4, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 24, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 4, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 24, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 4, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 24, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 4, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 24, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 4, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 24, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 4, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 24, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 6, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 26, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 10, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 30, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 25, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 15, "acceleration_score": 11, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": 30, "acceleration_score": 15, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 8, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": -35, "acceleration_score": -65, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 14, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": -6, "acceleration_score": 29, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 8, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": -6, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 28, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 8, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 28, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 10, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 30, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 10, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 30, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 10, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 30, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55, "timeseries_peak_bearish": -8, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 2, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 10, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target resolved explicitly to natural_gas; single-market scope enforced.", "No trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided in payload; used timestamp recency proxies + temporal_profile hints for momentum/recency weighting.", "Prior market state not provided; state_change defaulted to 'unchanged' (unknown prior).", "Most admitted drivers are geopolitics/LNG supply-chain risk; core US natgas fundamentals (weather/storage/flows) not strongly present in this batch." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }