Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: contradiction_pressure_rising
- generated_at: 2026-03-15T15:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B-LI-001 | Near-term lithium futures upside bias persists as EV adoption + charging buildout narratives re-accelerate into the latest cycle. | 58 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 62 |
| lithium | B-LI-002 | Supply-side expansion/traction in lithium extraction and project development remains a near-term headwind that can cap rallies and amplify pullbacks. | 55 | down | stable | 24h | false | 62 |
| lithium | B-LI-003 | Net outcome is likely choppy/range-like over the next 24h because demand-supporting headlines and supply-expansion headlines are arriving in the same window. | 62 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-20260315T150000Z-lithium",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-001",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Near-term lithium futures upside bias persists as EV adoption + charging buildout narratives re-accelerate into the latest cycle.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"ev_demand",
"charging_infrastructure_buildout",
"battery_manufacturing_capacity_expansion",
"policy_support_signals"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-002"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-002",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Supply-side expansion/traction in lithium extraction and project development remains a near-term headwind that can cap rallies and amplify pullbacks.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"battery_supply_chain",
"refining_capacity",
"mine_supply_expansion_signals"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-001",
"B-LI-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-003",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Net outcome is likely choppy/range-like over the next 24h because demand-supporting headlines and supply-expansion headlines are arriving in the same window.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mixed_demand_vs_supply_impulses",
"policy_and_regulatory_noise",
"evidence_authority_dispersion"
],
"contradicted_by": []
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-LI-001",
"B-LI-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "contradiction_pressure_rising",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Fresh demand-supporting signals co-occur with fresh-ish supply-expansion signals, increasing whipsaw risk."
},
{
"flag": "authority_dispersion",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "High-trust anchors exist, but the broader evidence mix is dispersed across many lower-tier domains; conviction capped."
},
{
"flag": "policy_regulatory_noise",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Regulatory/reputational anomalies in the EV/charging ecosystem can introduce abrupt sentiment reversals."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_in_last_6h",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Latest directional push is strong but concentrated in a small number of very recent items; fragility elevated."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If the next 1\u20132 evidence cycles continue to add demand-side confirmations without matching supply-expansion confirmations."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If contradictory items (demand up vs supply up) continue arriving inside the same 6\u201312h window; expect higher volatility/whipsaws."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh negative regulatory/implementation signals cluster within \u22642h and contradiction ratio spikes; treat as reversal-warning regime."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 19,
"fragility_score_0_100": 86,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 19,
"fragility_score_0_100": 86,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 86,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 86,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 16,
"fragility_score_0_100": 87,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 16,
"fragility_score_0_100": 87,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": -8,
"velocity_score": -12,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 81,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": -2,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 13,
"fragility_score_0_100": 92,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 1,
"bullish_pressure_score": 11,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 1,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 92,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 13,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 3,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 88,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 16,
"fragility_score_0_100": 87,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 84,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 19,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 24,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 17,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 21,
"fragility_score_0_100": 86,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 17,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 21,
"fragility_score_0_100": 86,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 17,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 21,
"fragility_score_0_100": 86,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 19,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 24,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 84,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 22,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -8,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope enforced: lithium only.",
"Timeseries buckets were populated using each admitted item's latest available timestamp proxies present in the input (no per-record reconstruction).",
"State_change computed with unknown prior state treated as neutral baseline for transition labelling."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}