Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: contradiction_pressure_rising
  • generated_at: 2026-03-15T15:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-LI-001 Near-term lithium futures upside bias persists as EV adoption + charging buildout narratives re-accelerate into the latest cycle. 58 up accelerating 6h false 62
lithium B-LI-002 Supply-side expansion/traction in lithium extraction and project development remains a near-term headwind that can cap rallies and amplify pullbacks. 55 down stable 24h false 62
lithium B-LI-003 Net outcome is likely choppy/range-like over the next 24h because demand-supporting headlines and supply-expansion headlines are arriving in the same window. 62 mixed stable 24h false 62

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS-20260315T150000Z-lithium",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Near-term lithium futures upside bias persists as EV adoption + charging buildout narratives re-accelerate into the latest cycle.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "ev_demand",
 "charging_infrastructure_buildout",
 "battery_manufacturing_capacity_expansion",
 "policy_support_signals"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-LI-002"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Supply-side expansion/traction in lithium extraction and project development remains a near-term headwind that can cap rallies and amplify pullbacks.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "battery_supply_chain",
 "refining_capacity",
 "mine_supply_expansion_signals"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-LI-001",
 "B-LI-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-003",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Net outcome is likely choppy/range-like over the next 24h because demand-supporting headlines and supply-expansion headlines are arriving in the same window.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mixed_demand_vs_supply_impulses",
 "policy_and_regulatory_noise",
 "evidence_authority_dispersion"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-LI-001",
 "B-LI-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "contradiction_pressure_rising",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Fresh demand-supporting signals co-occur with fresh-ish supply-expansion signals, increasing whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "flag": "authority_dispersion",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "High-trust anchors exist, but the broader evidence mix is dispersed across many lower-tier domains; conviction capped."
 },
 {
 "flag": "policy_regulatory_noise",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Regulatory/reputational anomalies in the EV/charging ecosystem can introduce abrupt sentiment reversals."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_in_last_6h",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Latest directional push is strong but concentrated in a small number of very recent items; fragility elevated."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If the next 1\u20132 evidence cycles continue to add demand-side confirmations without matching supply-expansion confirmations."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradictory items (demand up vs supply up) continue arriving inside the same 6\u201312h window; expect higher volatility/whipsaws."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh negative regulatory/implementation signals cluster within \u22642h and contradiction ratio spikes; treat as reversal-warning regime."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 19,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 86,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 19,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 86,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 86,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 86,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 16,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 87,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 16,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 87,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": -8,
 "velocity_score": -12,
 "acceleration_score": -12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 81,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": -2,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 13,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 92,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 1,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 11,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 1,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 12,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 92,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 13,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 3,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 88,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 16,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 87,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 84,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 19,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 24,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 17,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 21,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 86,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 17,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 21,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 86,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 17,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 21,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 86,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 19,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 24,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 84,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 22,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -8,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 6,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Single-market scope enforced: lithium only.",
 "Timeseries buckets were populated using each admitted item's latest available timestamp proxies present in the input (no per-record reconstruction).",
 "State_change computed with unknown prior state treated as neutral baseline for transition labelling."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}