• subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: cross_domain_proxy_risk (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-15T03:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-LI-1 Near-term lithium futures sentiment tilts upward as EV adoption/electrification signals remain net-positive and recent. 60 up accelerating 24h false 66
lithium B-LI-2 Over the next 6 hours, lithium futures sentiment is more mixed than strongly trending due to thin direct lithium-specific fresh evidence and reliance on cross-domain proxies. 55 mixed stable 6h false 66
lithium B-LI-3 Reversal/volatility risk is elevated relative to conviction because recent regulatory/legal risk anomalies can spill into EV sentiment and risk appetite, even if not lithium-specific. 57 mixed accelerating 24h false 66
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_LITHIUM_20260315T030000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-1",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Near-term lithium futures sentiment tilts upward as EV adoption/electrification signals remain net-positive and recent.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "EV adoption / electrification demand narrative (cross-domain demand proxy)",
 "Recent positive lithium-resource development/extraction signals (supply chain investment tone)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-LI-3"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-2",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Over the next 6 hours, lithium futures sentiment is more mixed than strongly trending due to thin direct lithium-specific fresh evidence and reliance on cross-domain proxies.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Sparse direct lithium pricing/inventory evidence in the last few hours",
 "Broad EV/battery manufacturing signals are supportive but indirect"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-LI-1"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-3",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Reversal/volatility risk is elevated relative to conviction because recent regulatory/legal risk anomalies can spill into EV sentiment and risk appetite, even if not lithium-specific.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Recent negative regulatory/legal anomaly signals (single-source / echo-risk flagged)",
 "High share of low-authority evidence in the broader thematic feed increases fragility"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-LI-1",
 "B-LI-2",
 "B-LI-3"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "cross_domain_proxy_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "lithium",
 "details": "A material portion of bullish evidence is inferred from EV/electrification activity rather than direct lithium spot/inventory/contract datapoints."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_last_6h",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "lithium",
 "details": "Directional read is supported by a small number of very recent items; confidence is therefore capped."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_mix_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "lithium",
 "details": "Multiple supporting narratives show high low-authority share and echo-risk in VIP/risk lanes, increasing fragility."
 },
 {
 "flag": "regulatory_spillover_risk",
 "severity": "low",
 "market": "lithium",
 "details": "Recent regulatory/legal anomalies may affect EV/battery sentiment and risk appetite, indirectly impacting lithium."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=6h) lithium-specific demand or contract/tender signals arrive without a competing negative inventory/supply shock signal."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If regulatory/legal risk anomalies expand beyond single-source mentions or begin to contradict the EV-demand tone in the next cycle."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=2h) credible opposing signal appears (e.g., inventory build, demand slowdown, policy hit) causing contradiction ratio to spike."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action_label": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If the next 6h produces no new corroborating lithium-specific evidence and net sentiment returns to flat/mixed in the timeseries."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 2,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
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 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 11,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 11,
 "acceleration_score": 11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -11,
 "acceleration_score": -22,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "acceleration_score": 11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 17,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 17,
 "acceleration_score": 17,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 41,
 "acceleration_score": 24,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -58,
 "acceleration_score": -99,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 58,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 72,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 72,
 "velocity_score": 72,
 "acceleration_score": 72,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 72,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 72,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 6,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No trend_physics/trend_state_memory objects provided; recency/acceleration inferred from temporal_profile (shape, recency_weighted_heat, peak_bucket) and evidence_recency_proxy newest timestamps.",
 "Signal mapping includes a mix of lithium-specific supply/extraction/resource items and cross-domain EV/battery demand proxies; fragility increased accordingly.",
 "No <=2h high-trust opposing signal detected in provided inputs; kill-switch not triggered."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}