Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures (HG)
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-03-15T14:30:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| copper | B1_demand_pull_grid_ev | Near-term demand narrative remains supportive (grid modernisation, renewables rollout, EV/charging build-out), keeping bias upward over the next 6–24h absent a macro shock. | 60 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 55 |
| copper | B2_supply_tightness_deficit | Supply-side tightness/deficit framing (mine disruptions + structural deficit talk) continues to act as a floor under sentiment, supporting upside continuation risk. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 55 |
| copper | B3_trade_policy_volatility_cap | Trade-policy uncertainty (US trade investigations / USTR-related narrative) raises volatility and can intermittently cap bullish continuation even if the medium-term story is constructive. | 55 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 55 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_20260315_copper_001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-15T14:30:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures (HG)",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1_demand_pull_grid_ev",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term demand narrative remains supportive (grid modernisation, renewables rollout, EV/charging build-out), keeping bias upward over the next 6\u201324h absent a macro shock.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"energy_transition",
"electric_grid_capex",
"china_policy_support"
],
"contradicted_by": []
},
{
"belief_id": "B2_supply_tightness_deficit",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Supply-side tightness/deficit framing (mine disruptions + structural deficit talk) continues to act as a floor under sentiment, supporting upside continuation risk.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply",
"disruption_risk",
"inventory_tightness"
],
"contradicted_by": []
},
{
"belief_id": "B3_trade_policy_volatility_cap",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Trade-policy uncertainty (US trade investigations / USTR-related narrative) raises volatility and can intermittently cap bullish continuation even if the medium-term story is constructive.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"macro_policy_risk",
"usd_strength",
"risk_sentiment_shocks"
],
"contradicted_by": []
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1_demand_pull_grid_ev",
"B2_supply_tightness_deficit",
"B3_trade_policy_volatility_cap"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF_stale_context_overhang",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "medium",
"label": "stale_context_overhang",
"rationale": "A meaningful share of the supportive narrative appears slow-burn (multi-week themes). Recency-weighting reduces its dominance; momentum relies on fewer recent catalysts."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF_policy_macro_whipsaw",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "medium",
"label": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"rationale": "Trade-policy headlines can quickly flip risk sentiment and USD expectations, increasing intraday reversal risk even with a bullish base case."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF_low_authority_mix",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "low",
"label": "source_quality_dilution",
"rationale": "Several trend bundles indicate high low-authority share / singletons; conviction is capped accordingly."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=24h) demand-side confirmations continue without a meaningful macro/trade-policy shock signal."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If a fresh opposing macro impulse arrives (e.g., abrupt USD-strength risk-off or trade escalation) and contradiction rises materially within a 2\u20136h window."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If policy/trade headlines cluster and short-horizon sentiment velocity spikes while conviction fails to rise."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If supportive catalysts go quiet and the net directional score drifts back toward neutral (|score| < 20) with rising fragility."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
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"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T12:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 53,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 53,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T12:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T13:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T13:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T14:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 1,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 3,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit per-trend physics (acceleration/velocity/contradiction deltas) provided; used conservative heuristic mapping from recency proxies, consistency_score, and authority-mix indicators.",
"No prior market_state_table / trend_state_memory provided; state_change computed versus an assumed neutral prior (unknown_prior fallback)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}