Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-001 (policy_trade_headline_sensitivity, medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-15T22:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| copper | B-copper-001 | Copper futures bias remains skewed to the upside as electrification/grid/renewables narratives continue to reinforce demand expectations. | 60 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 52 |
| copper | B-copper-002 | Supply-side disruption/tightness narratives (mine supply / operational disruptions) remain a supportive tailwind for copper pricing risk premium. | 57 | up | stable | 24h | false | 52 |
| copper | B-copper-003 | Near-term (6h) directional edge is positive but fragile; headline-driven trade/policy updates can create sharp two-way moves. | 55 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 52 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-20260315T220000Z-copper",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper futures bias remains skewed to the upside as electrification/grid/renewables narratives continue to reinforce demand expectations.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"china_policy",
"inventory"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"policy/trade uncertainty can reverse risk appetite quickly",
"thin direct USD-strength evidence in this packet"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-002",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Supply-side disruption/tightness narratives (mine supply / operational disruptions) remain a supportive tailwind for copper pricing risk premium.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply",
"inventory"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"no strong fresh counter-evidence provided; risk is mainly \u2018absence-of-negative\u2019 rather than confirmed new tightening"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-003",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term (6h) directional edge is positive but fragile; headline-driven trade/policy updates can create sharp two-way moves.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"china_policy",
"usd_strength",
"industrial_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"trade policy shocks can flip to \u2018risk-off\u2019 quickly (reversal risk elevated vs a purely fundamentals-only tape)"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-copper-001",
"B-copper-002",
"B-copper-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-001",
"market": "copper",
"type": "policy_trade_headline_sensitivity",
"level": "medium",
"detail": "Trade-policy and industrial-policy narratives are prominent; these can invert quickly and create fast reversals."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-002",
"market": "copper",
"type": "authority_mix_skew",
"level": "medium",
"detail": "Several supporting narratives show a high low-authority share and/or singleton VIP items; conviction capped despite strong net-positive tone."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-003",
"market": "copper",
"type": "data_asymmetry_one_sidedness",
"level": "medium",
"detail": "Directional evidence is heavily one-sided (positive) with minimal explicit contradiction records; fragility remains non-trivial."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-004",
"market": "copper",
"type": "usd_driver_underrepresented",
"level": "low",
"detail": "USD-strength arena is in the flight plan but has limited explicit fresh signal objects in the provided packet."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while fresh pro-demand / supply-tightness signals persist and contradiction remains low."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate if a high-authority opposing signal appears within a 2h window (policy/trade shock) or contradiction ratio spikes materially."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Expect elevated intraday swings if trade-policy headlines accelerate (especially US/China-linked)."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "low",
"action_label": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence count drops to near-zero while narratives remain mostly background/persistent, reduce directional reliance."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 51,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T19:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T20:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 53,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 53,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T20:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T21:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T21:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 8,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction_ratio kept low-to-moderate but fragility not minimized due to one-sidedness/authority-mix concerns.",
"Prior market state not supplied; state_change defaulted to 'unchanged' with unknown prior context."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}