Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-001 (policy_trade_headline_sensitivity, medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-15T22:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-001 Copper futures bias remains skewed to the upside as electrification/grid/renewables narratives continue to reinforce demand expectations. 60 up accelerating 24h false 52
copper B-copper-002 Supply-side disruption/tightness narratives (mine supply / operational disruptions) remain a supportive tailwind for copper pricing risk premium. 57 up stable 24h false 52
copper B-copper-003 Near-term (6h) directional edge is positive but fragile; headline-driven trade/policy updates can create sharp two-way moves. 55 up accelerating 6h false 52

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS-20260315T220000Z-copper",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Copper futures bias remains skewed to the upside as electrification/grid/renewables narratives continue to reinforce demand expectations.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand",
 "china_policy",
 "inventory"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "policy/trade uncertainty can reverse risk appetite quickly",
 "thin direct USD-strength evidence in this packet"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Supply-side disruption/tightness narratives (mine supply / operational disruptions) remain a supportive tailwind for copper pricing risk premium.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply",
 "inventory"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "no strong fresh counter-evidence provided; risk is mainly \u2018absence-of-negative\u2019 rather than confirmed new tightening"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-003",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term (6h) directional edge is positive but fragile; headline-driven trade/policy updates can create sharp two-way moves.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "china_policy",
 "usd_strength",
 "industrial_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "trade policy shocks can flip to \u2018risk-off\u2019 quickly (reversal risk elevated vs a purely fundamentals-only tape)"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-copper-001",
 "B-copper-002",
 "B-copper-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "type": "policy_trade_headline_sensitivity",
 "level": "medium",
 "detail": "Trade-policy and industrial-policy narratives are prominent; these can invert quickly and create fast reversals."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "type": "authority_mix_skew",
 "level": "medium",
 "detail": "Several supporting narratives show a high low-authority share and/or singleton VIP items; conviction capped despite strong net-positive tone."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-003",
 "market": "copper",
 "type": "data_asymmetry_one_sidedness",
 "level": "medium",
 "detail": "Directional evidence is heavily one-sided (positive) with minimal explicit contradiction records; fragility remains non-trivial."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-004",
 "market": "copper",
 "type": "usd_driver_underrepresented",
 "level": "low",
 "detail": "USD-strength arena is in the flight plan but has limited explicit fresh signal objects in the provided packet."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while fresh pro-demand / supply-tightness signals persist and contradiction remains low."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate if a high-authority opposing signal appears within a 2h window (policy/trade shock) or contradiction ratio spikes materially."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Expect elevated intraday swings if trade-policy headlines accelerate (especially US/China-linked)."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action_label": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence count drops to near-zero while narratives remain mostly background/persistent, reduce directional reliance."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T19:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T20:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 53,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 53,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T20:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T21:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T21:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 8,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction_ratio kept low-to-moderate but fragility not minimized due to one-sidedness/authority-mix concerns.",
 "Prior market state not supplied; state_change defaulted to 'unchanged' with unknown prior context."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}