Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: contradiction_spike
- generated_at: 2026-03-15T15:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bearish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-COFFEE-001 |
Near-term coffee futures sentiment skews slightly lower as improved-origin conditions/weather narratives and near-term price softness dominate fresh flow. |
58 |
down |
fading |
6h |
false |
72 |
| coffee |
B-COFFEE-002 |
Over the next 24h, coffee futures likely trade choppy with a mild downside bias; geopolitics/shipping amplify volatility. |
55 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
72 |
| coffee |
B-COFFEE-003 |
Upside tail-risk persists if logistics/freight disruptions worsen and delay physical flows, reintroducing a disruption premium. |
35 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
72 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260315T150000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-COFFEE-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term coffee futures sentiment skews slightly lower as improved-origin conditions/weather narratives and near-term price softness dominate fresh flow, but the move is not high-conviction.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"weather",
"crop_conditions",
"origin_supply"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-COFFEE-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-COFFEE-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, coffee futures are more likely to trade choppy with a mild downside bias, with geopolitics/shipping acting as a volatility amplifier rather than a clean directional driver.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"origin_supply",
"weather"
],
"contradicted_by": []
},
{
"belief_id": "B-COFFEE-003",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Upside tail-risk persists if logistics/freight disruptions worsen and delay physical flows, reintroducing a disruption premium even if baseline supply narratives look comfortable.",
"probability_pct": 35,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"origin_supply"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-COFFEE-001"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bearish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "high",
"state_change": "new_bearish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-COFFEE-001",
"B-COFFEE-002",
"B-COFFEE-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "contradiction_spike",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Fresh downside/comfortable-supply narratives coexist with elevated logistics disruption headlines, raising whipsaw/reversal probability."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Older high-price/record-inflation narratives remain in the background but lack equally-fresh reinforcement in this cycle; stale suppression applied."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Directional call leans on a small number of clearly coffee-specific fresh items; conviction capped."
},
{
"flag": "geopolitical_shipping_risk",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "War-risk and freight-route uncertainty elevate volatility and can quickly re-price supply-chain expectations."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Direction is vulnerable to abrupt flips if new high-authority, very-recent coffee-specific supply/flow news arrives."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_short_bias",
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional fresh coffee-specific reports reinforce near-term price softness and no matching disruption premium appears in the same 6h window."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If shipping/freight disruption headlines become coffee-specific (ports, exporters, container availability) or if contradiction ratio rises further within <=2h."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If freight/insurance surcharges expand or additional chokepoint-risk stories accelerate, increasing gap-risk across sessions."
},
{
"action": "stay_flat",
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If incoming evidence remains mixed and directional score stays within the neutral band (between -20 and +20) for multiple hours."
},
{
"action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If a late-breaking, high-authority opposing signal arrives within <=2h and materially invalidates the current mild-bearish bias."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": [
"coffee"
]
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": -8,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 55,
"net_sentiment_score": -30,
"velocity_score": -22,
"acceleration_score": -20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 52,
"net_sentiment_score": -24,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 28,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": -20,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 49,
"net_sentiment_score": -18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": -16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": -14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": -12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": -10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": -8,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 29,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": -7,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 27,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": -4,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 24,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": -3,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 23,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": -2,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": -2,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -30,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 1,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bearish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 6,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope enforced: coffee.",
"Directional view is capped by mixed drivers (fresh price-softness vs logistics-disruption volatility).",
"No reliable prior market_state_table/trend_state_memory provided; state_change defaulted assuming neutral prior."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}