Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-LOW_AUTHORITY_MIX (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-14T02:10:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| uranium | B1 | Over the next 24h, uranium price sentiment is biased upward as pro-nuclear policy/regulatory narratives remain supportive and are still receiving fresh reinforcement. | 64 | up | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
| uranium | B2 | Over the next 6h, uranium sentiment tilts upward as supply-chain/geopolitical risk narratives keep tightening the perceived supply balance. | 61 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 58 |
| uranium | B3 | Near-term (6h–24h) uranium sentiment remains constructive but fragile due to authority-mix skew (high low-tier share) and multiple single-source VIP lane items. | 58 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "CIS-uranium-20260314T021000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T02:10:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Uranium futures", "market_code": "uranium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "uranium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "uranium" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B1", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Over the next 24h, uranium price sentiment is biased upward as pro-nuclear policy/regulatory narratives remain supportive and are still receiving fresh reinforcement.", "probability_pct": 64, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "policy_nuclear: T-003 (EU policy) fresh reinforcement", "policy_nuclear: T-031/T-014 (US NRC policy/regulatory) continuing reinforcement", "reactor_demand: broad build/innovation narratives (T-007/T-024/T-028)" ], "contradicted_by": [] }, { "belief_id": "B2", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Over the next 6h, uranium sentiment tilts upward as supply-chain/geopolitical risk narratives keep tightening the perceived supply balance.", "probability_pct": 61, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "geopolitical_supply_risk: T-005 (fuel supply chain geopolitical risk) late-surge profile", "supply_contracting: supplier exposure themes (Orano/Kazatomprom/Rosatom clustering inside T-005)" ], "contradicted_by": [] }, { "belief_id": "B3", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Near-term (6h\u201324h) uranium sentiment remains constructive but fragile due to authority-mix skew (high low-tier share) and multiple single-source VIP lane items.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "data_quality: low_authority_share elevated across several trend evidence bundles", "echo_risk: multiple VIP/risk-anomaly single-source items (VIP lane, RA lane)" ], "contradicted_by": [] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "uranium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "low", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B1", "B2", "B3" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag_id": "RF-LOW_AUTHORITY_MIX", "market": "uranium", "severity": "medium", "description": "Evidence bundles show elevated low-authority share across multiple trends; increases fragility and whipsaw risk even when direction is bullish." }, { "flag_id": "RF_SINGLE_SOURCE_ECHO_RISK", "market": "uranium", "severity": "medium", "description": "Several VIP/risk-anomaly items are single-source (echo-risk flagged), limiting confirmation strength for short-horizon moves." }, { "flag_id": "RF_STALE_CONTEXT_OVERHANG", "market": "uranium", "severity": "low", "description": "Some narratives have long evidence spans (>7d) and can persist without adding new directional information; monitor for fresh confirmation." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "action_label": "watch_long_bias", "market": "uranium", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Directional score remains >= +20 with at least one fresh (<=6h) policy/supply tightening reinforcement and no credible opposing acceleration." }, { "action_label": "reversal_watch", "market": "uranium", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Any fresh (<=2h) high-authority opposing signal appears that materially raises contradiction ratio versus the last cycle." }, { "action_label": "volatility_watch", "market": "uranium", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises above ~0.30 or signal mix becomes dominated by single-source items (echo-risk) within the last 6h." }, { "action_label": "stay_flat", "market": "uranium", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Directional score falls into [-20,+20] with weakening momentum (acceleration <= 0) and no fresh directional catalysts." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "uranium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 19, "bullish_pressure_score": 19, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 19, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 39, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 41, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 24, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 23, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 43, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 24, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 25, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 26, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 27, "bullish_pressure_score": 27, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 27, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 29, "bullish_pressure_score": 29, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 29, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 31, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 45, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 13, "acceleration_score": 11, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 42, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -16, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 40, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": 10, "acceleration_score": 12, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 58, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 58, "velocity_score": 8, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 74, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 58, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 18, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 8, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "No explicit bearish/contradictory trend objects provided; reversal detection remains low-risk.", "Hourly timeseries is approximated from trend-level timestamps/recency proxies (per-record timestamps were not available in this 6B input slice).", "State-change set to new_bullish because prior state was not provided (unknown_prior).", "Unmapped signal count: 0 (all admitted items mapped to uranium via sector/arena relevance)." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }