Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: macro_rate_fx_sensitivity
- generated_at: 2026-03-14 07:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| silver |
BLF-SILVER-001 |
Over the next 24h, silver sentiment is net supportive due to precious-metals flow narratives and macro rate/FX framing, with supply-side headlines acting mainly as a conviction cap rather than a dominant downside driver. |
62 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
56 |
| silver |
BLF-SILVER-002 |
Over the next 6h, silver is more likely than not to retain an upside bias, but is vulnerable to headline-driven whipsaw from rate-expectation messaging; a modest pullback does not invalidate the broader bullish tilt. |
58 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
56 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260314-070000Z-silver-001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "BLF-SILVER-001",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, silver sentiment is net supportive due to precious-metals flow narratives and macro rate/FX framing, with supply-side headlines acting mainly as a conviction cap rather than a dominant downside driver.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"precious_metals_flows",
"usd_strength",
"real_rates",
"macro_policy_expectations"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"mine_supply_development_narratives"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "BLF-SILVER-002",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Over the next 6h, silver is more likely than not to retain an upside bias, but is vulnerable to headline-driven whipsaw from rate-expectation messaging; a modest pullback does not invalidate the broader bullish tilt.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"real_rates",
"usd_strength",
"policy_headlines"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"supply_expansion_headlines",
"risk_event_noise"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"BLF-SILVER-001",
"BLF-SILVER-002"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "macro_rate_fx_sensitivity",
"severity": "medium",
"notes": "Signal is materially dependent on real-rates and USD framing; reversals can occur quickly on central-bank communication shifts."
},
{
"flag": "supply_overhang_cap",
"severity": "low_to_medium",
"notes": "Silver mining development / project headlines introduce a supply-side narrative that caps conviction even when flows are supportive."
},
{
"flag": "event_risk_noise_legal",
"severity": "low",
"notes": "Seed-level legal/policy anomaly tags (US Supreme Court) add uncertainty/volatility potential but lack materialised evidence in this packet."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional fresh evidence within the next 6\u201312h reinforces precious-metals inflow/ETF demand signals while USD/real-rate pressure does not intensify, maintain a long-bias watch."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction rises (macro turns hawkish / USD strengthens sharply) alongside renewed supply-expansion headlines, shift focus to reversal-watch conditions."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If mixed signals persist with low incremental freshness (few new high-authority updates), prioritise volatility-watch / stay-flat labelling until confirmation."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"silver"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 9,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -13,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 34,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope: explicit market_code=silver (single-market).",
"Timeseries buckets are derived from trend-level timestamps (published/timestamp_found/evidence_recency_proxy) rather than per-record tick timestamps; values are conservative and intended for shape/lead-lag testing, not precision timing.",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; reversal risk elevated to medium primarily due to macro sensitivity and mixed driver set (flows vs supply narratives)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}