Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: macro_rate_fx_sensitivity
  • generated_at: 2026-03-14 07:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver BLF-SILVER-001 Over the next 24h, silver sentiment is net supportive due to precious-metals flow narratives and macro rate/FX framing, with supply-side headlines acting mainly as a conviction cap rather than a dominant downside driver. 62 up stable 24h false 56
silver BLF-SILVER-002 Over the next 6h, silver is more likely than not to retain an upside bias, but is vulnerable to headline-driven whipsaw from rate-expectation messaging; a modest pullback does not invalidate the broader bullish tilt. 58 up accelerating 6h false 56

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260314-070000Z-silver-001",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "BLF-SILVER-001",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, silver sentiment is net supportive due to precious-metals flow narratives and macro rate/FX framing, with supply-side headlines acting mainly as a conviction cap rather than a dominant downside driver.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "precious_metals_flows",
 "usd_strength",
 "real_rates",
 "macro_policy_expectations"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "mine_supply_development_narratives"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "BLF-SILVER-002",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next 6h, silver is more likely than not to retain an upside bias, but is vulnerable to headline-driven whipsaw from rate-expectation messaging; a modest pullback does not invalidate the broader bullish tilt.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "real_rates",
 "usd_strength",
 "policy_headlines"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "supply_expansion_headlines",
 "risk_event_noise"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "BLF-SILVER-001",
 "BLF-SILVER-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "macro_rate_fx_sensitivity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "notes": "Signal is materially dependent on real-rates and USD framing; reversals can occur quickly on central-bank communication shifts."
 },
 {
 "flag": "supply_overhang_cap",
 "severity": "low_to_medium",
 "notes": "Silver mining development / project headlines introduce a supply-side narrative that caps conviction even when flows are supportive."
 },
 {
 "flag": "event_risk_noise_legal",
 "severity": "low",
 "notes": "Seed-level legal/policy anomaly tags (US Supreme Court) add uncertainty/volatility potential but lack materialised evidence in this packet."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional fresh evidence within the next 6\u201312h reinforces precious-metals inflow/ETF demand signals while USD/real-rate pressure does not intensify, maintain a long-bias watch."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction rises (macro turns hawkish / USD strengthens sharply) alongside renewed supply-expansion headlines, shift focus to reversal-watch conditions."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If mixed signals persist with low incremental freshness (few new high-authority updates), prioritise volatility-watch / stay-flat labelling until confirmation."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 9,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -13,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 34,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 4,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope: explicit market_code=silver (single-market).",
 "Timeseries buckets are derived from trend-level timestamps (published/timestamp_found/evidence_recency_proxy) rather than per-record tick timestamps; values are conservative and intended for shape/lead-lag testing, not precision timing.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects provided; reversal risk elevated to medium primarily due to macro sensitivity and mixed driver set (flows vs supply narratives)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}