Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-03-14T12:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bearish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B1 Over the next 6–24h, silver futures face downside pressure from a stronger USD and higher real-rate/interest-rate expectations, outweighing near-term safe-haven bids. 62 down accelerating 24h false 68
silver B2 Safe-haven demand linked to geopolitical tension can intermittently slow or reverse silver’s decline, increasing whipsaw risk even if the base-case remains bearish. 44 mixed stable 6h false 68
silver B3 Supply/demand narratives (mine development, medium-term institutional demand themes) are present but act as background support rather than an immediate 6–24h catalyst. 38 up fading 24h false 68

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260314T120000Z-silver",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bearish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next 6\u201324h, silver futures face downside pressure from a stronger USD and higher real-rate/interest-rate expectations, outweighing near-term safe-haven bids.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "usd_strength",
 "real_rates",
 "macro_policy_expectations"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "geopolitical_risk_safe_haven_flows",
 "precious_metals_flow_support"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Safe-haven demand linked to geopolitical tension can intermittently slow or reverse silver\u2019s decline, increasing whipsaw risk even if the base-case remains bearish.",
 "probability_pct": 44,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "precious_metals_flows",
 "geopolitical_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "usd_strength",
 "real_rates"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Supply/demand narratives (mine development, medium-term institutional demand themes) are present but act as background support rather than an immediate 6\u201324h catalyst.",
 "probability_pct": 38,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply",
 "industrial_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "usd_strength",
 "real_rates"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "bearish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bearish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2",
 "B3"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Several supporting themes are >72h old and treated as background; near-term state is driven primarily by the freshest USD/rates impulse."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Geopolitical-safe-haven impulse can conflict with USD/rates tightening impulse, raising short-horizon reversal/whipsaw probability."
 },
 {
 "flag": "timeseries_data_sparsity",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Bucket allocation is based on limited visible timestamps (ingested headlines / recency proxies); per-record timestamp distribution is not fully available."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_short_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If USD-strength / rates-tightening signals remain dominant over the next 6h and no strong opposing precious-metals inflow signal emerges."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=2h) high-authority safe-haven/ETF-inflow impulse appears that offsets the USD/rates drag."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction between macro-tightening and safe-haven narratives increases (mixed evidence in the most recent 6h)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": -15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 24,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": -15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 24,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": -18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": -18,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": -20,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": -22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47,
 "net_sentiment_score": -22,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
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 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -25,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 50,
 "net_sentiment_score": -25,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
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 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 60,
 "net_sentiment_score": -35,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
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 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
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 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
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 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": true,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": -44,
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
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 "velocity_score": -4,
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 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:30:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 83,
 "net_sentiment_score": -58,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T10:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -57,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 82,
 "net_sentiment_score": -57,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.51,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 81,
 "net_sentiment_score": -56,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.51,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 80,
 "net_sentiment_score": -55,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 79,
 "net_sentiment_score": -54,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -58,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 4,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bearish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 8,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 4,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code='silver'.",
 "Fresh macro/USD/rates impulse (within ~0\u201324h of snapshot) dominates directional state; older supply/demand narratives treated as background.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction assessed qualitatively from mixed macro-tightening vs safe-haven flow themes."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}