Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-03-14T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bearish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| silver | B1 | Over the next 6–24h, silver futures face downside pressure from a stronger USD and higher real-rate/interest-rate expectations, outweighing near-term safe-haven bids. | 62 | down | accelerating | 24h | false | 68 |
| silver | B2 | Safe-haven demand linked to geopolitical tension can intermittently slow or reverse silver’s decline, increasing whipsaw risk even if the base-case remains bearish. | 44 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 68 |
| silver | B3 | Supply/demand narratives (mine development, medium-term institutional demand themes) are present but act as background support rather than an immediate 6–24h catalyst. | 38 | up | fading | 24h | false | 68 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260314T120000Z-silver",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bearish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Over the next 6\u201324h, silver futures face downside pressure from a stronger USD and higher real-rate/interest-rate expectations, outweighing near-term safe-haven bids.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"usd_strength",
"real_rates",
"macro_policy_expectations"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"geopolitical_risk_safe_haven_flows",
"precious_metals_flow_support"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Safe-haven demand linked to geopolitical tension can intermittently slow or reverse silver\u2019s decline, increasing whipsaw risk even if the base-case remains bearish.",
"probability_pct": 44,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"precious_metals_flows",
"geopolitical_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"usd_strength",
"real_rates"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B3",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Supply/demand narratives (mine development, medium-term institutional demand themes) are present but act as background support rather than an immediate 6\u201324h catalyst.",
"probability_pct": 38,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply",
"industrial_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"usd_strength",
"real_rates"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "bearish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bearish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2",
"B3"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Several supporting themes are >72h old and treated as background; near-term state is driven primarily by the freshest USD/rates impulse."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Geopolitical-safe-haven impulse can conflict with USD/rates tightening impulse, raising short-horizon reversal/whipsaw probability."
},
{
"flag": "timeseries_data_sparsity",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Bucket allocation is based on limited visible timestamps (ingested headlines / recency proxies); per-record timestamp distribution is not fully available."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_short_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If USD-strength / rates-tightening signals remain dominant over the next 6h and no strong opposing precious-metals inflow signal emerges."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=2h) high-authority safe-haven/ETF-inflow impulse appears that offsets the USD/rates drag."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction between macro-tightening and safe-haven narratives increases (mixed evidence in the most recent 6h)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [
"silver"
],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": -15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 24,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": -15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 24,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": -18,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": -20,
"velocity_score": -2,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
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"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -22,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": -22,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": -25,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
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"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
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"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 60,
"net_sentiment_score": -35,
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"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"dominant_state": "bearish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": true,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 83,
"net_sentiment_score": -58,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T10:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -57,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 82,
"net_sentiment_score": -57,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.51,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 81,
"net_sentiment_score": -56,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.51,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 80,
"net_sentiment_score": -55,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 79,
"net_sentiment_score": -54,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
}
]
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -58,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bearish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 8,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 4,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code='silver'.",
"Fresh macro/USD/rates impulse (within ~0\u201324h of snapshot) dominates directional state; older supply/demand narratives treated as background.",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction assessed qualitatively from mixed macro-tightening vs safe-haven flow themes."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}