• subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-NG-001 (narrative_whipsaw)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-14 14:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Escalation/heightened geopolitical risk around key gas/LNG nodes and shipping routes sustains an upside risk-premium in natural gas futures over the next 24h. 62 up accelerating 24h false 66
natural_gas B-NG-002 Near-term (6h) natural gas futures sentiment remains supported by fresh headline flow that is skewed toward disruption-risk framing rather than stability framing. 58 up accelerating 6h false 66 
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260314T140000Z-natural_gas",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Escalation/heightened geopolitical risk around key gas/LNG nodes and shipping routes sustains an upside risk-premium in natural gas futures over the next 24h.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Middle East / LNG exporter geopolitical risk premium (Qatar/Iran adjacency)",
 "Energy infrastructure / shipping-route disruption risk narrative spillover into LNG-linked pricing"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Credible de-escalation headlines reducing supply-risk premium",
 "Clear evidence of uninterrupted LNG flows / restored infrastructure operations",
 "Domestic US fundamentals (storage/production/weather) overwhelming geopolitics (not present in current feed)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term (6h) natural gas futures sentiment remains supported by fresh headline flow that is skewed toward disruption-risk framing rather than stability framing.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Fresh headline density clustered in the last day with conflict/disruption labels",
 "Recent outlier/risk-anomaly mentions that can amplify short-horizon attention"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Sudden high-authority stability/ceasefire confirmation within the next 2 hours",
 "Material counter-signal on storage build / mild weather demand shock (not present in current feed)"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "type": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Direction is heavily headline/geopolitics-driven; a single de-escalation headline can compress risk premium quickly."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "type": "cross_market_linkage",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Signals are dominated by global LNG/geopolitical factors; transmission to the specific NG futures benchmark can be indirect."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-003",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "type": "data_sparsity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Weather/storage/flows fundamentals are not explicitly represented in admitted signals; conviction is capped."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-004",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "type": "low_authority_tail",
 "severity": "low",
 "description": "Several VIP/risk-anomaly items are single-source; treated as secondary amplifiers only."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Additional high-authority disruption confirmation within the next 6h without credible de-escalation."
 },
 {
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "High-authority de-escalation / restored infrastructure or shipping-flow normalisation headline in the next 2\u20136h."
 },
 {
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Headline cadence remains elevated (geopolitical + infrastructure disruption clustering), increasing whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Fundamental signals (weather/storage/production) arrive and contradict the current geopolitics-driven tilt."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
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 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 },
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
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 "acceleration_score": -23,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": -27,
 "acceleration_score": -29,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
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 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "acceleration_score": 27,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 14,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 27,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 24,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Single-market scope enforced: natural_gas.",
 "No explicit prior market state provided; state_change assumes neutral baseline -> new_bullish.",
 "Dominant admitted drivers are geopolitical/supply-risk narratives; explicit weather/storage/flows signals not present in this feed."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}