Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-LI-001 (data_sparsity_vs_headline_strength)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-14T23:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-LI-001 Near-term sentiment tilts upward as EV adoption/electrification narratives show fresh reinforcement, supporting lithium demand expectations. 62 up accelerating 24h false 58
lithium B-LI-002 Medium-term demand tone remains supported by battery manufacturing capacity expansion headlines, but with recency decay (older narrative, intermittent fresh touches). 57 up stable 30d false 58
lithium B-LI-003 Regulatory and reputational risk headlines (single-source bursts) increase downside tail risk and can disrupt bullish follow-through. 41 mixed accelerating 6h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis_lithium_2026-03-14T23:00:00Z_v1",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Near-term sentiment tilts upward as EV adoption/electrification narratives show fresh reinforcement, supporting lithium demand expectations.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "EV adoption & electrification narrative reinforcement (fresh evidence within last 24h)",
 "Battery ecosystem activity signals (manufacturing + chemistry headlines)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-LI-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Medium-term demand tone remains supported by battery manufacturing capacity expansion headlines, but with recency decay (older narrative, intermittent fresh touches).",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "30d",
 "drivers": [
 "Battery manufacturing capacity expansion narrative (slow-burn, periodically refreshed)",
 "OEM/sector investment/expansion headlines"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-LI-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-003",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Regulatory and reputational risk headlines (single-source bursts) increase downside tail risk and can disrupt bullish follow-through.",
 "probability_pct": 41,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Very recent negative regulatory/risk anomaly signal (thin, single-source)",
 "Policy/regulatory narrative noise around EV ecosystem and permitting"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-LI-001",
 "B-LI-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-LI-001",
 "B-LI-002",
 "B-LI-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "label": "data_sparsity_vs_headline_strength",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Directional tilt is supported by a handful of fresh bursts rather than dense, continuous confirmation."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "label": "low_authority_mix_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "A meaningful share of supporting items are lower-tier/single-source; conviction is capped accordingly."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-003",
 "market": "lithium",
 "label": "contradiction_risk_recent",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "A very recent negative regulatory/risk anomaly introduces near-term whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-004",
 "market": "lithium",
 "label": "unknown_prior_state_defaulted",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "No prior state memory provided; state_change computed by defaulting prior to neutral_mixed."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional fresh, higher-authority demand-side confirmations arrive within the next 6\u201324h while contradiction stays contained, maintain a long-bias watch stance.",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias"
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If mixed policy/regulatory headlines cluster (especially from higher-authority sources) within a short window, expect instability/whipsaw and prioritise monitoring.",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch"
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If a credible, fresh opposing demand signal emerges (<=2h) and is corroborated, treat as reversal-risk escalation.",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch"
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 19,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 23,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 17,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 21,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": -20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 19,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 17,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 17,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 19,
 "acceleration_score": 18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -29,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 32,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 10,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 11,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No trend_physics/trend_state_memory fields present in provided inputs; used recency proxies (published/timestamp_found/newest_timestamp) and sentiment labels for conservative synthesis.",
 "State change computed with missing prior state memory; defaulted prior to neutral_mixed."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}