Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-LI-001 (data_sparsity_vs_headline_strength)
- generated_at: 2026-03-14T23:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| lithium |
B-LI-001 |
Near-term sentiment tilts upward as EV adoption/electrification narratives show fresh reinforcement, supporting lithium demand expectations. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
58 |
| lithium |
B-LI-002 |
Medium-term demand tone remains supported by battery manufacturing capacity expansion headlines, but with recency decay (older narrative, intermittent fresh touches). |
57 |
up |
stable |
30d |
false |
58 |
| lithium |
B-LI-003 |
Regulatory and reputational risk headlines (single-source bursts) increase downside tail risk and can disrupt bullish follow-through. |
41 |
mixed |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_lithium_2026-03-14T23:00:00Z_v1",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-001",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Near-term sentiment tilts upward as EV adoption/electrification narratives show fresh reinforcement, supporting lithium demand expectations.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"EV adoption & electrification narrative reinforcement (fresh evidence within last 24h)",
"Battery ecosystem activity signals (manufacturing + chemistry headlines)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-002",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Medium-term demand tone remains supported by battery manufacturing capacity expansion headlines, but with recency decay (older narrative, intermittent fresh touches).",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "30d",
"drivers": [
"Battery manufacturing capacity expansion narrative (slow-burn, periodically refreshed)",
"OEM/sector investment/expansion headlines"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-003",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Regulatory and reputational risk headlines (single-source bursts) increase downside tail risk and can disrupt bullish follow-through.",
"probability_pct": 41,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Very recent negative regulatory/risk anomaly signal (thin, single-source)",
"Policy/regulatory narrative noise around EV ecosystem and permitting"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-001",
"B-LI-002"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-LI-001",
"B-LI-002",
"B-LI-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-001",
"market": "lithium",
"label": "data_sparsity_vs_headline_strength",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Directional tilt is supported by a handful of fresh bursts rather than dense, continuous confirmation."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-002",
"market": "lithium",
"label": "low_authority_mix_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "A meaningful share of supporting items are lower-tier/single-source; conviction is capped accordingly."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-003",
"market": "lithium",
"label": "contradiction_risk_recent",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "A very recent negative regulatory/risk anomaly introduces near-term whipsaw risk."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-004",
"market": "lithium",
"label": "unknown_prior_state_defaulted",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "No prior state memory provided; state_change computed by defaulting prior to neutral_mixed."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional fresh, higher-authority demand-side confirmations arrive within the next 6\u201324h while contradiction stays contained, maintain a long-bias watch stance.",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias"
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If mixed policy/regulatory headlines cluster (especially from higher-authority sources) within a short window, expect instability/whipsaw and prioritise monitoring.",
"action_label": "volatility_watch"
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If a credible, fresh opposing demand signal emerges (<=2h) and is corroborated, treat as reversal-risk escalation.",
"action_label": "reversal_watch"
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 19,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 23,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 17,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 21,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": -20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 19,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 17,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 17,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 19,
"acceleration_score": 18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -29,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 32,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 10,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 11,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No trend_physics/trend_state_memory fields present in provided inputs; used recency proxies (published/timestamp_found/newest_timestamp) and sentiment labels for conservative synthesis.",
"State change computed with missing prior state memory; defaulted prior to neutral_mixed."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}