Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: contradiction_spike_intra_day (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-14 14:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B-LI-001 | Near-term sentiment positively biased as EV adoption/charging-infrastructure narratives in late-surge. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 61 |
| lithium | B-LI-003 | Supply expansion narratives increase downside-capping pressure; bullish moves may fade quickly. | 55 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 61 |
| lithium | B-LI-004 | Regulatory/legal-policy headlines can trigger short-lived pullbacks in demand sentiment. | 47 | down | fading | 6h | false | 61 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260314-lithium-001", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Lithium futures", "market_code": "lithium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 61, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "lithium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "lithium" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-LI-001", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Near-term lithium futures sentiment remains positively biased as EV adoption/charging-infrastructure narratives stay in a late-surge phase.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "T-038", "T-001", "T-007", "T-012" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-LI-003", "B-LI-004" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-LI-003", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Supply-side expansion/extraction and capacity build narratives increase downside-capping pressure, raising the chance that bullish moves fade quickly.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "T-025", "T-007", "T-005" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-LI-001" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-LI-004", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Regulatory/legal-policy headlines remain a meaningful swing factor for EV/battery demand sentiment and can trigger short-lived pullbacks in lithium risk appetite.", "probability_pct": 47, "direction": "down", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "T-018", "RA-001", "VIP-004" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-LI-001" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "lithium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-LI-001", "B-LI-003", "B-LI-004" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "contradiction_spike_intra_day", "severity": "medium", "market": "lithium", "details": "Intra-day sentiment showed a dip with higher contradiction before recovering; increases whipsaw risk." }, { "flag": "source_quality_skew_low", "severity": "medium", "market": "lithium", "details": "Trend bundles show a high low-authority share; reduces freshness-confidence despite multiple Tier-A anchors." }, { "flag": "policy_regulatory_overhang", "severity": "medium", "market": "lithium", "details": "Policy/regulatory narratives can quickly reprice EV-demand expectations, elevating reversal risk." }, { "flag": "vip_single_source_noise", "severity": "low", "market": "lithium", "details": "Several VIP-lane items are single-source; treated as low-weight until corroborated." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "lithium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Directional score stays >= +25 for 3 consecutive 1h buckets AND contradiction_ratio <= 0.30." }, { "market": "lithium", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Two consecutive 1h buckets show directional_score_signed falling by >= 10 points OR contradiction_ratio rises to >= 0.40." }, { "market": "lithium", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Absolute velocity_score >= 12 in any 1h bucket (sharp sentiment swing)." }, { "market": "lithium", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Directional score moves into (-19, +19) range for 4 consecutive 1h buckets (neutralisation)." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "lithium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 13, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 13, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.31, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 43, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 19, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 19, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 27, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 27, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": -8, "acceleration_score": -7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.36, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 16, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 42, "net_sentiment_score": 16, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.38, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.35, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 39, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 42, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 41, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 29, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 29, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 68, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 44, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 2, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=lithium.", "No trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided in input; used temporal_profile and evidence_recency_proxy fields for recency weighting and contradiction heuristics.", "State_change set to 'unchanged' due to unknown_prior (no prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory supplied)." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }