Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: data_sparsity (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-14T07:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| lithium |
B-lithium-001 |
Lithium futures have an upside bias over the next 24h as EV adoption/infrastructure and battery supply-chain expansion narratives remain net-supportive for upstream materials demand. |
57 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
68 |
| lithium |
B-lithium-002 |
Near-term lithium futures direction is fragile: policy/regulatory noise can quickly flip sentiment even without new hard inventory/spot pricing confirmation. |
63 |
mixed |
stable |
6h |
false |
68 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-lithium-20260314T070000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-lithium-001",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Lithium futures have an upside bias over the next 24h as EV adoption/infrastructure and battery supply-chain expansion narratives remain net-supportive for upstream materials demand.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"ev_demand",
"battery_supply_chain",
"china_policy",
"refining_capacity"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"policy_uncertainty_headlines",
"supply_additions_overhang"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-lithium-002",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Near-term lithium futures direction is fragile: policy/regulatory noise can quickly flip sentiment even without new hard inventory/spot pricing confirmation.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"china_policy",
"regulatory_policy",
"data_sparsity"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"sustained_positive_ev_demand_flow"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-lithium-001",
"B-lithium-002"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-001",
"market": "lithium",
"label": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Signals are demand/policy narrative-heavy with limited direct lithium-specific inventory/spot/flow confirmation in the admitted evidence."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-002",
"market": "lithium",
"label": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "High sensitivity to policy/regulatory headlines can swing sentiment quickly despite steady background EV/battery themes."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-003",
"market": "lithium",
"label": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"rationale": "Some supportive themes are multi-week slow-burn narratives; they help backdrop but are weaker as near-term drivers."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Additional fresh (<=24h) lithium-specific demand/inventory confirmation arrives without a simultaneous policy/regulatory shock."
},
{
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Policy/regulatory headline cadence increases (multiple new items inside 6h) or contradiction ratio rises materially versus prior cycle."
},
{
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "A high-authority opposing signal appears within 2h that directly implies weaker EV demand, higher lithium supply, or softer pricing."
},
{
"action_label": "stay_flat",
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score falls back into [-20,+20] with no fresh directional evidence in the last 6h."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 3,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 3,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
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"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 1,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 1,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 29,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 1,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 1,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 29,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 3,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 32,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior market state not provided; state_change treated as first-observation transition.",
"Most admitted evidence is indirect (EV/battery narrative) rather than lithium-specific price/inventory prints; conviction capped and fragility elevated.",
"No high-trust fresh opposing (<=2h) signal detected; kill-switch not triggered."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}