Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-14T07:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-lithium-001 Lithium futures have an upside bias over the next 24h as EV adoption/infrastructure and battery supply-chain expansion narratives remain net-supportive for upstream materials demand. 57 up accelerating 24h false 68
lithium B-lithium-002 Near-term lithium futures direction is fragile: policy/regulatory noise can quickly flip sentiment even without new hard inventory/spot pricing confirmation. 63 mixed stable 6h false 68

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-lithium-20260314T070000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-lithium-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Lithium futures have an upside bias over the next 24h as EV adoption/infrastructure and battery supply-chain expansion narratives remain net-supportive for upstream materials demand.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "ev_demand",
 "battery_supply_chain",
 "china_policy",
 "refining_capacity"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "policy_uncertainty_headlines",
 "supply_additions_overhang"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-lithium-002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Near-term lithium futures direction is fragile: policy/regulatory noise can quickly flip sentiment even without new hard inventory/spot pricing confirmation.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "china_policy",
 "regulatory_policy",
 "data_sparsity"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "sustained_positive_ev_demand_flow"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-lithium-001",
 "B-lithium-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "label": "data_sparsity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Signals are demand/policy narrative-heavy with limited direct lithium-specific inventory/spot/flow confirmation in the admitted evidence."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "label": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "High sensitivity to policy/regulatory headlines can swing sentiment quickly despite steady background EV/battery themes."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-003",
 "market": "lithium",
 "label": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "rationale": "Some supportive themes are multi-week slow-burn narratives; they help backdrop but are weaker as near-term drivers."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Additional fresh (<=24h) lithium-specific demand/inventory confirmation arrives without a simultaneous policy/regulatory shock."
 },
 {
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Policy/regulatory headline cadence increases (multiple new items inside 6h) or contradiction ratio rises materially versus prior cycle."
 },
 {
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "A high-authority opposing signal appears within 2h that directly implies weaker EV demand, higher lithium supply, or softer pricing."
 },
 {
 "action_label": "stay_flat",
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score falls back into [-20,+20] with no fresh directional evidence in the last 6h."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
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 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 3,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 31,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 31,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 1,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 1,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 29,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 1,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 1,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 29,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 3,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 3,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 31,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 32,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 6,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior market state not provided; state_change treated as first-observation transition.",
 "Most admitted evidence is indirect (EV/battery narrative) rather than lithium-specific price/inventory prints; conviction capped and fragility elevated.",
 "No high-trust fresh opposing (<=2h) signal detected; kill-switch not triggered."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}