Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: coffee
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: macro_to_coffee_mapping_risk
  • generated_at: 2026-03-14 15:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B1 Near-term coffee futures face upward pressure from elevated shipping/logistics disruption risk and freight uncertainty, increasing effective supply tightness. 62 up accelerating 24h false 67
coffee B2 Coffee demand tone in consumer/retail channel signals is supportive, modestly reinforcing upward bias but not dominant versus supply/logistics drivers. 55 up stable 24h false 67
coffee B3 Volatility risk is elevated because the dominant drivers are macro/logistics headlines with limited coffee-specific crop/weather confirmation; direction can flip quickly on de-escalation news. 64 mixed accelerating 6h false 67

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_coffee_20260314T150000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term coffee futures face upward pressure from elevated shipping/logistics disruption risk and freight uncertainty, increasing effective supply tightness.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "origin_supply"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Coffee demand tone in consumer/retail channel signals is supportive, modestly reinforcing upward bias but not dominant versus supply/logistics drivers.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "consumer_demand_proxy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Volatility risk is elevated because the dominant drivers are macro/logistics headlines with limited coffee-specific crop/weather confirmation; direction can flip quickly on de-escalation news.",
 "probability_pct": 64,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "policy_regulatory_noise",
 "data_specificity_gap"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2",
 "B3"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "flag": "macro_to_coffee_mapping_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "A large share of admitted evidence is broad logistics/geopolitics rather than coffee-specific crop/weather signals; directional confidence capped."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "flag": "authority_mix_skew_low",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Evidence bundles show a substantial low-authority share in several trends; raises fragility/whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "flag": "driver_coverage_gap",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Limited explicit evidence in provided inputs for coffee-specific weather/crop conditions and BRL/USD currency impulse within the last 24h window."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional coffee-specific origin supply/crop stress or freight disruption confirmations arrive within the next 6\u201312h without meaningful de-escalation headlines."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If headline cadence on shipping lanes/regulatory actions remains high while coffee-specific fundamentals remain unconfirmed."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If credible de-escalation / normalisation signals emerge (e.g., shipping capacity restoration or reduced disruption messaging) within a 0\u20136h window."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action_label": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If both (a) logistics risk fades and (b) no compensating bullish crop/weather signals appear, pushing directional score back into neutral band."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 7,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 3,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 29,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 7,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 3,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 29,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 9,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 31,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 23,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 35,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 3,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No workflow5A physics payload provided; used legacy approximations from trend metadata (recency proxies, velocity_hint, temporal_profile).",
 "Contradictions array empty in inputs; contradiction ratios are conservative estimates reflecting mixed driver types and low coffee-specificity."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}