Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: policy_headline_whipsaw_risk (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-13T18:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| uranium | B-U-001 | Net information flow over the next 24h remains demand-supportive for uranium (policy/nuclear build narrative dominant), keeping an upward bias in uranium futures sentiment. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 62 |
| uranium | B-U-002 | Supply-chain/geopolitical supply-risk framing remains supportive (tightness narrative), limiting downside follow-through unless a clear supply-easing headline emerges. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 62 |
| uranium | B-U-003 | Near-term (6h) sentiment is likely to remain mildly positive but fragile due to headline-driven policy/regulatory sensitivity and a meaningful single-source outlier share. | 55 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-20260313T180000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-U-001",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Net information flow over the next 24h remains demand-supportive for uranium (policy/nuclear build narrative dominant), keeping an upward bias in uranium futures sentiment.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"policy_nuclear",
"reactor_demand",
"energy_security_policy_tailwinds"
],
"contradicted_by": []
},
{
"belief_id": "B-U-002",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Supply-chain/geopolitical supply-risk framing remains supportive (tightness narrative), limiting downside follow-through unless a clear supply-easing headline emerges.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"supply_contracting",
"producer_risk_premium"
],
"contradicted_by": []
},
{
"belief_id": "B-U-003",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Near-term (6h) sentiment is likely to remain mildly positive but fragile due to headline-driven policy/regulatory sensitivity and a meaningful single-source outlier share.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"policy_headline_sensitivity",
"single_source_outliers"
],
"contradicted_by": []
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-U-001",
"B-U-002",
"B-U-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "policy_headline_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Signal set is policy/regulatory heavy; sentiment can flip quickly on a single credible counter-headline."
},
{
"flag": "authority_mix_skew_low",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Several high-heat clusters show a large low-authority share; conviction capped despite breadth."
},
{
"flag": "single_source_outlier_noise",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source; treated as fragile additives (do not drive the main state alone)."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If the next 6\u201324h continues to deliver policy/demand-supportive nuclear headlines without a credible supply-easing or demand-cooling counter-signal."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If a high-authority opposing headline lands (e.g., policy rollback / demand disappointment / supply expansion) and is corroborated within ~6h."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If single-source outliers begin clustering (multiple new uncorroborated items per hour) indicating noise/echo dynamics."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T21:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -12,
"acceleration_score": -24,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 24,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": -12,
"acceleration_score": -24,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T00:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 24,
"acceleration_score": 36,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T00:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": -24,
"acceleration_score": -48,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T01:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 10,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T03:00:00Z",
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},
{
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"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 70,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": 60,
"acceleration_score": 60,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -60,
"acceleration_score": -120,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 60,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -12,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -12,
"acceleration_score": -24,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 36,
"acceleration_score": 36,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 70,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 36,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 4,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope locked to single market: uranium (explicit).",
"No explicit per-trend v2 physics/state-memory provided; used recency proxies (timestamps, temporal_profile, velocity_hint) and conservative contradiction assumptions.",
"No explicit contradiction objects supplied; reversal risk set to medium mainly due to headline sensitivity + single-source outlier share (fragility), not due to observed opposing evidence."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}