Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_risk (high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-13T07:10:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | B-NG-001 | Near-term pricing bias remains upward as geopolitics and LNG supply-disruption narratives dominate the freshest high-authority feed. | 58 | up | fading | 24h | false | 66 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-002 | Upside impulse is vulnerable to a short-term pullback if demand-side/fuel-switching signals persist or broaden, despite the broader risk-premium backdrop. | 52 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 66 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-003 | Volatility risk is elevated: the information set is dominated by geopolitics/operational disruption topics with fast headline decay. | 64 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 66 |
Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260313T071000Z-natural_gas", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-13T07:10:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Natural gas futures", "market_code": "natural_gas" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 66, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "natural_gas", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-NG-001", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Near-term pricing bias remains upward as geopolitics and LNG supply-disruption narratives dominate the freshest high-authority feed.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Geopolitical escalation / supply-risk narratives around Russia/Iran/Qatar", "LNG operational/supply disruption signalling (multi-source, Tier-A anchored)", "Infrastructure disruption risk headlines clustering in the last ~6h" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Fuel-switching / demand-softening risk (coal-fired power switching) appearing very late in the window with sparse evidence" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-NG-002", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Upside impulse is vulnerable to a short-term pullback if demand-side/fuel-switching signals persist or broaden, despite the broader risk-premium backdrop.", "probability_pct": 52, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Fresh counter-signal: fuel switching away from gas (sparse but very recent)", "Narrative whipsaw risk: geopolitics-driven spikes can mean-revert quickly" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Continued clustering of fresh supply-risk headlines within the last ~6h" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-NG-003", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Volatility risk is elevated: the information set is dominated by geopolitics/operational disruption topics with fast headline decay.", "probability_pct": 64, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "High concentration of geopolitical/infrastructure disruption narratives", "Mixed authority mix (some single-source VIP/risk items alongside Tier-A anchors)" ], "contradicted_by": [] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-NG-001", "B-NG-002", "B-NG-003" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk", "market": "natural_gas", "severity": "high", "details": "Signal stack is dominated by geopolitics / disruption narratives (fast decay, abrupt reversals possible)." }, { "flag": "contradiction_rising", "market": "natural_gas", "severity": "medium", "details": "A very recent demand-side / fuel-switching counter-signal reduces near-term momentum despite still-bullish net pressure." }, { "flag": "late_window_counter_signal", "market": "natural_gas", "severity": "medium", "details": "The newest opposing item is sparse/low-confidence, so no kill-switch; but it increases fragility and reversal watch." }, { "flag": "single_source_echo_risk_present", "market": "natural_gas", "severity": "low", "details": "Some admitted VIP/risk items are single-source; treated as low-weight context only." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "medium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "Fresh supply-disruption / geopolitical risk items continue clustering over the next 6h without comparable demand-side bearish confirmations." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "high", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "Demand-side/fuel-switching signals recur with multi-source confirmation OR fresh headlines indicate de-escalation/resolution of the dominant geopolitical drivers." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "high", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Additional geopolitics/operations headlines appear within <=2h windows (headline stacking), raising whipsaw probability." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "medium", "action": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "Directional score returns to the neutral band (|score| < 20) while contradiction ratio remains elevated." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [ "natural_gas" ] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 8, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 31, "fragility_score_0_100": 76, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 8, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 31, "fragility_score_0_100": 76, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 7, "bullish_pressure_score": 7, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 7, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 31, "fragility_score_0_100": 76, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 7, "bullish_pressure_score": 7, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 7, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 31, "fragility_score_0_100": 76, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 7, "bullish_pressure_score": 7, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 7, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 31, "fragility_score_0_100": 76, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 7, "bullish_pressure_score": 7, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 7, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 31, "fragility_score_0_100": 76, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 8, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 31, "fragility_score_0_100": 76, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 8, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 31, "fragility_score_0_100": 76, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, "bullish_pressure_score": 9, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 32, "fragility_score_0_100": 76, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, "bullish_pressure_score": 9, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 32, "fragility_score_0_100": 76, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 10, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 33, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 10, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 33, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 12, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 35, "fragility_score_0_100": 72, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 39, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 16, "bullish_pressure_score": 16, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 16, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 14, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 36, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 41, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": 35, "acceleration_score": 29, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 69, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 52, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 52, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -38, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 40, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": -12, "acceleration_score": -9, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 46, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 18, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 49, "bullish_pressure_score": 49, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 49, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": -15, "acceleration_score": -18, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -5, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": -5, "velocity_score": -39, "acceleration_score": -24, "contradiction_ratio": 0.55, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 29, "fragility_score_0_100": 82, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55, "timeseries_peak_bearish": -5, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 39, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 11, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=natural_gas.", "One broad geopolitical trend was excluded as weakly-mapped to natural gas (noise control).", "Multiple VIP/risk items were single-source and/or off-market; treated as unmapped and not admitted to directional scoring.", "No contradiction objects were supplied in input; contradiction ratios are inferred from mixed driver directions in admitted signals." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }