Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: lithium
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-03-13 16:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-LI-24H-001 Over the next 24h, lithium futures sentiment is skewed slightly upward but capped by offsetting supply-addition headlines; net outcome most likely rangebound-to-marginally higher. 55 mixed stable 24h false 66
lithium B-LI-24H-002 If supply-addition narratives dominate the tape, lithium futures are vulnerable to a short-term downside drift (range breakdown) despite constructive EV-demand headlines. 45 down fading 24h false 66
lithium B-LI-6H-001 Over the next 6h, expected state is choppy/flat-to-slightly-up, with elevated sensitivity to regulatory/policy headlines affecting EV and battery supply chain sentiment. 57 flat accelerating 6h false 66

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-lithium-20260313T160000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Lithium futures", "market_code": "lithium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 42, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 66, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "lithium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "lithium" ], "regime_state": "rangebound", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-LI-24H-001", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Over the next 24h, lithium futures sentiment is skewed slightly upward but capped by offsetting supply-addition headlines; net outcome most likely rangebound-to-marginally higher.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "ev_demand_tailwinds (broad electrification/EV adoption narratives)", "battery_supply_chain buildout signals", "counterweight: upstream supply additions / extraction expansion headlines", "policy/regulatory headline sensitivity (adds two-sided volatility)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-LI-24H-002" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-LI-24H-002", "market": "lithium", "claim": "If supply-addition narratives dominate the tape, lithium futures are vulnerable to a short-term downside drift (range breakdown) despite constructive EV-demand headlines.", "probability_pct": 45, "direction": "down", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "incremental supply newsflow (new shipments / offtake / extraction expansions)", "thin direct price-linked evidence in the last 24h (narrative-driven risk)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-LI-24H-001" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-LI-6H-001", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Over the next 6h, expected state is choppy/flat-to-slightly-up, with elevated sensitivity to regulatory/policy headlines affecting EV and battery supply chain sentiment.", "probability_pct": 57, "direction": "flat", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "recent EV infrastructure / adoption headline clustering", "low contradiction visibility in inputs (but high narrative whipsaw risk)" ], "contradicted_by": [] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "lithium", "directional_state": "neutral_mixed", "momentum_state": "stable", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "unclear", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-LI-24H-001", "B-LI-24H-002", "B-LI-6H-001" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "market": "lithium", "detail": "Core drivers are persistent/medium-term narratives (EV adoption, capacity buildout) with limited direct, time-local lithium-specific pricing evidence in the last 24h." }, { "flag": "narrative_whipsaw", "market": "lithium", "detail": "Two-sided drivers (demand optimism vs supply additions) imply quick flips in sentiment without strong contradiction telemetry." }, { "flag": "data_sparsity_intraday", "market": "lithium", "detail": "Hourly attribution is thin; conviction capped and fragility elevated." }, { "flag": "regulatory_headline_risk", "market": "lithium", "detail": "Regulatory/legal headlines around EV ecosystem can transmit to lithium sentiment quickly, raising near-term volatility." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "action": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "Directional score remains within [-15,+15] and no fresh high-authority, lithium-specific catalyst breaks the range." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Policy/regulatory headline burst or sudden clustering of supply-addition newsflow within a 2\u20136h window." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "A new, high-authority opposing catalyst appears and directional score swings by >25 points within 2\u20133 buckets." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "low", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "Fresh EV-demand positives remain dominant while supply-addition headlines fade; directional score sustains >= +20 for 3+ hours." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "low", "action": "watch_short_bias", "trigger_condition": "Supply-addition narrative intensifies and directional score sustains <= -20 for 3+ hours." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [ "lithium" ], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 2, "bullish_pressure_score": 51, "bearish_pressure_score": 49, "net_sentiment_score": 2, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 2, "bullish_pressure_score": 51, "bearish_pressure_score": 49, "net_sentiment_score": 2, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 1, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 50, "net_sentiment_score": 1, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 33, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 1, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 50, "net_sentiment_score": 1, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 33, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -2, "bullish_pressure_score": 49, "bearish_pressure_score": 51, "net_sentiment_score": -2, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -1, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 50, "net_sentiment_score": -1, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 33, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 50, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.31, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 33, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 1, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 50, "net_sentiment_score": 1, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.31, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 33, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 2, "bullish_pressure_score": 51, "bearish_pressure_score": 49, "net_sentiment_score": 2, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 2, "bullish_pressure_score": 51, "bearish_pressure_score": 49, "net_sentiment_score": 2, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 3, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 48, "net_sentiment_score": 3, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 35, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 3, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 48, "net_sentiment_score": 3, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 35, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 48, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 36, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 48, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 36, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 5, "bullish_pressure_score": 53, "bearish_pressure_score": 47, "net_sentiment_score": 5, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 37, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 7, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 46, "net_sentiment_score": 7, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 39, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 45, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 11, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 11, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 43, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 45, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 45, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 41, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 46, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 45, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 41, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 11, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 11, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 12, "timeseries_peak_bearish": -2, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 2, "signal_regime": "mixed_flat" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 4, "stale_suppression_count": 1, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=lithium; scope constrained to single market.", "No per-trend v2 physics fields present in provided payload; used temporal_profile/velocity_hint plus recency proxies to weight signals conservatively.", "Contradictions array empty in input; contradiction_ratio treated as moderate due to mixed drivers and narrative whipsaw risk rather than explicit contradiction telemetry.", "Prior market state not provided; state_change defaulted to 'unchanged' with unknown prior." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }