Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: lithium
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: contradiction_spike_recent (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-13T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B-LI-01 | Lithium futures have an upward bias over the next 24h driven by fresh EV adoption + battery supply-chain expansion signals that are still net-positive after recency-weighting. | 61 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 64 |
| lithium | B-LI-02 | Near-term (6h) lithium futures are vulnerable to volatility spikes and brief pullbacks if policy/regulatory headlines intensify, despite a positive demand narrative backdrop. | 58 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 64 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_20260313T120000Z_lithium",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-01",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Lithium futures have an upward bias over the next 24h driven by fresh EV adoption + battery supply-chain expansion signals that are still net-positive after recency-weighting.",
"probability_pct": 61,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"EV adoption / OEM strategy late-surge cluster (e.g., BYD, Stellantis-related signals)",
"Battery manufacturing capacity expansion & supply-chain activity",
"Battery recycling theme rising (medium-term supportive sentiment spillover into lithium complex)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Regulatory/policy enforcement noise (US DOJ-related risk anomaly)",
"Mining regulation tail-risk (single-source negative outlier; low authority)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-02",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Near-term (6h) lithium futures are vulnerable to volatility spikes and brief pullbacks if policy/regulatory headlines intensify, despite a positive demand narrative backdrop.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Regulatory risk anomalies (short-term)",
"Sector regulatory theme (Tesla/EV policy spillover risk)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Fresh, clustered positive demand/supply-chain signals in the last ~3\u20134h"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-LI-01",
"B-LI-02"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "contradiction_spike_recent",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Short-lived rise in bearish pressure/contradiction around the US DOJ-related regulatory anomaly window; not dominant but increases reversal sensitivity."
},
{
"flag": "policy_regulatory_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Regulatory/policy items are present and can create whipsaw despite net-positive EV/battery demand signals."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_direct_lithium_pricing",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Signal is derived from thematic drivers and entity activity; no direct lithium price/flow confirmation included in the provided inputs."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If net_sentiment_score stays > +50 with contradiction_ratio < 0.20 over the next 6h."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If bearish_pressure_score rises above 15 OR contradiction_ratio > 0.30 in any 1h bucket."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional regulatory/policy anomalies print within a 2h window (late-breaking opposition risk)."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action_label": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If directional_score_signed falls into (-20, +20) AND fragility_score_0_100 > 75."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
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"velocity_score": 0.0,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
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{
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{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T09:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 66.0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70.8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4.8,
"net_sentiment_score": 66.0,
"velocity_score": 12.0,
"acceleration_score": -1.2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.063,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T09:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 68.4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73.2,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4.8,
"net_sentiment_score": 68.4,
"velocity_score": 2.4,
"acceleration_score": -9.6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.062,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T10:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 68.4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73.2,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4.8,
"net_sentiment_score": 68.4,
"velocity_score": 0.0,
"acceleration_score": -2.4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.062,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T10:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 68.4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73.2,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4.8,
"net_sentiment_score": 68.4,
"velocity_score": 0.0,
"acceleration_score": 0.0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.062,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T11:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 68.4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73.2,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4.8,
"net_sentiment_score": 68.4,
"velocity_score": 0.0,
"acceleration_score": 0.0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.062,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T11:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 68.4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73.2,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4.8,
"net_sentiment_score": 68.4,
"velocity_score": 0.0,
"acceleration_score": 0.0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.062,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 68.4,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0.0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 27.6,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 4,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"target_market_code resolved from flight_plan.target_market_code (explicit).",
"No v2 trend_physics/trend_state_memory fields present in provided payload; used recency/temporal_profile + sentiment polarity heuristics.",
"No prior market state provided; state_change computed against unknown_prior treated as neutral baseline => new_bullish."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}