Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: lithium
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: contradiction_spike_recent (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-13T12:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-LI-01 Lithium futures have an upward bias over the next 24h driven by fresh EV adoption + battery supply-chain expansion signals that are still net-positive after recency-weighting. 61 up accelerating 24h false 64
lithium B-LI-02 Near-term (6h) lithium futures are vulnerable to volatility spikes and brief pullbacks if policy/regulatory headlines intensify, despite a positive demand narrative backdrop. 58 mixed stable 6h false 64

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_20260313T120000Z_lithium",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-01",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Lithium futures have an upward bias over the next 24h driven by fresh EV adoption + battery supply-chain expansion signals that are still net-positive after recency-weighting.",
 "probability_pct": 61,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "EV adoption / OEM strategy late-surge cluster (e.g., BYD, Stellantis-related signals)",
 "Battery manufacturing capacity expansion & supply-chain activity",
 "Battery recycling theme rising (medium-term supportive sentiment spillover into lithium complex)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Regulatory/policy enforcement noise (US DOJ-related risk anomaly)",
 "Mining regulation tail-risk (single-source negative outlier; low authority)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-02",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Near-term (6h) lithium futures are vulnerable to volatility spikes and brief pullbacks if policy/regulatory headlines intensify, despite a positive demand narrative backdrop.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Regulatory risk anomalies (short-term)",
 "Sector regulatory theme (Tesla/EV policy spillover risk)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Fresh, clustered positive demand/supply-chain signals in the last ~3\u20134h"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-LI-01",
 "B-LI-02"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "contradiction_spike_recent",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Short-lived rise in bearish pressure/contradiction around the US DOJ-related regulatory anomaly window; not dominant but increases reversal sensitivity."
 },
 {
 "flag": "policy_regulatory_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Regulatory/policy items are present and can create whipsaw despite net-positive EV/battery demand signals."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_direct_lithium_pricing",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Signal is derived from thematic drivers and entity activity; no direct lithium price/flow confirmation included in the provided inputs."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If net_sentiment_score stays > +50 with contradiction_ratio < 0.20 over the next 6h."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If bearish_pressure_score rises above 15 OR contradiction_ratio > 0.30 in any 1h bucket."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional regulatory/policy anomalies print within a 2h window (late-breaking opposition risk)."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action_label": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If directional_score_signed falls into (-20, +20) AND fragility_score_0_100 > 75."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28.8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37.2,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8.4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28.8,
 "velocity_score": 0.0,
 "acceleration_score": 0.0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.184,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z",
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 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T20:00:00Z",
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
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 "resolution": "30m",
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 "buckets": [
 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T09:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 66.0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70.8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4.8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 66.0,
 "velocity_score": 12.0,
 "acceleration_score": -1.2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.063,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T09:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 68.4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73.2,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4.8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68.4,
 "velocity_score": 2.4,
 "acceleration_score": -9.6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.062,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T10:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 68.4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73.2,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4.8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68.4,
 "velocity_score": 0.0,
 "acceleration_score": -2.4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.062,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T10:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 68.4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73.2,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4.8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68.4,
 "velocity_score": 0.0,
 "acceleration_score": 0.0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.062,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T11:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 68.4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73.2,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4.8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68.4,
 "velocity_score": 0.0,
 "acceleration_score": 0.0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.062,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T11:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 68.4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73.2,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4.8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68.4,
 "velocity_score": 0.0,
 "acceleration_score": 0.0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.062,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 68.4,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0.0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 27.6,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 4,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "target_market_code resolved from flight_plan.target_market_code (explicit).",
 "No v2 trend_physics/trend_state_memory fields present in provided payload; used recency/temporal_profile + sentiment polarity heuristics.",
 "No prior market state provided; state_change computed against unknown_prior treated as neutral baseline => new_bullish."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}