- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw
- generated_at: 2026-03-13T17:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B-copper-6h-001 |
Over the next 6 hours, copper futures sentiment remains mildly upward-biased, but trade-policy headlines add fragility that can cap follow-through. |
58 |
up |
fading |
6h |
false |
74 |
| copper |
B-copper-24h-001 |
Over the next 24 hours, the dominant information set still supports a modest bullish copper bias (tight supply + electrification demand), but the tape is headline-sensitive (policy/trade) and prone to whipsaws. |
62 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
74 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-20260313-170000Z-copper",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish (Fragile)",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-6h-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Over the next 6 hours, copper futures sentiment remains mildly upward-biased, but trade-policy headlines add fragility that can cap follow-through.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Supply tightness / deficit narrative (mine disruption + inventory scarcity theme)",
"Ongoing electrification / grid capex demand narrative",
"China industrial-policy signalling supportive of manufacturing"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Fresh tariff / trade-probe headlines raising demand uncertainty and flow risk",
"Regional demand divergence signals (mixed macro impulse)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-24h-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, the dominant information set still supports a modest bullish copper bias (tight supply + electrification demand), but the tape is headline-sensitive (policy/trade) and prone to whipsaws.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Structural deficit / disruption framing repeatedly reinforced across sources",
"Energy-transition demand themes (EVs, storage, grid/HVDC buildout)",
"China plan/blueprint signalling continued industrial support"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Trade/tariff escalation risk impacting industrial supply chains and demand expectations",
"Single-source / lower-authority bursts within the freshest feed (raises fragility)"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-copper-6h-001",
"B-copper-24h-001"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Bullish supply/demand narratives coexist with trade/tariff headline risk, increasing short-horizon reversals despite positive baseline."
},
{
"flag": "data_quality_mixed_authority",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Freshest incremental items include multiple single-source / lower-tier domains; conviction capped and fragility elevated."
},
{
"flag": "recency_flip_risk",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Latest buckets show a small net-score fade after earlier strengthening, consistent with headline sensitivity."
},
{
"flag": "trade_policy_overhang",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Section-301 style investigations / anti-dumping probes and tariff discussions can alter near-term demand expectations and trade flows."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh supportive supply-tightness/inventory headlines continue without new trade escalation in the next 6\u201324h."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "high",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Any additional tariff / anti-dumping / trade-investigation headlines within a 2\u20136h window."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If net sentiment score rolls over further (two consecutive hourly buckets lower) while contradiction ratio rises."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "low",
"action_label": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If signals remain mixed/fragile with no corroborating high-authority directional catalyst."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
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"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T18:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T14:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T15:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 28,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided in inputs; used temporal_profile + same-day ingestion timestamps for recency emphasis.",
"Contradictions list empty; contradiction_ratio values reflect mixed driver arenas (trade-policy uncertainty vs supply tightness) rather than explicit contradiction objects.",
"Prior market state not supplied; state_change conservatively set to 'unchanged' (unknown prior)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}