• subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw
  • generated_at: 2026-03-13T17:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-6h-001 Over the next 6 hours, copper futures sentiment remains mildly upward-biased, but trade-policy headlines add fragility that can cap follow-through. 58 up fading 6h false 74
copper B-copper-24h-001 Over the next 24 hours, the dominant information set still supports a modest bullish copper bias (tight supply + electrification demand), but the tape is headline-sensitive (policy/trade) and prone to whipsaws. 62 up stable 24h false 74
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS-20260313-170000Z-copper",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish (Fragile)",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-6h-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Over the next 6 hours, copper futures sentiment remains mildly upward-biased, but trade-policy headlines add fragility that can cap follow-through.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Supply tightness / deficit narrative (mine disruption + inventory scarcity theme)",
 "Ongoing electrification / grid capex demand narrative",
 "China industrial-policy signalling supportive of manufacturing"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Fresh tariff / trade-probe headlines raising demand uncertainty and flow risk",
 "Regional demand divergence signals (mixed macro impulse)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-24h-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, the dominant information set still supports a modest bullish copper bias (tight supply + electrification demand), but the tape is headline-sensitive (policy/trade) and prone to whipsaws.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Structural deficit / disruption framing repeatedly reinforced across sources",
 "Energy-transition demand themes (EVs, storage, grid/HVDC buildout)",
 "China plan/blueprint signalling continued industrial support"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Trade/tariff escalation risk impacting industrial supply chains and demand expectations",
 "Single-source / lower-authority bursts within the freshest feed (raises fragility)"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-copper-6h-001",
 "B-copper-24h-001"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Bullish supply/demand narratives coexist with trade/tariff headline risk, increasing short-horizon reversals despite positive baseline."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_quality_mixed_authority",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Freshest incremental items include multiple single-source / lower-tier domains; conviction capped and fragility elevated."
 },
 {
 "flag": "recency_flip_risk",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Latest buckets show a small net-score fade after earlier strengthening, consistent with headline sensitivity."
 },
 {
 "flag": "trade_policy_overhang",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Section-301 style investigations / anti-dumping probes and tariff discussions can alter near-term demand expectations and trade flows."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh supportive supply-tightness/inventory headlines continue without new trade escalation in the next 6\u201324h."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Any additional tariff / anti-dumping / trade-investigation headlines within a 2\u20136h window."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If net sentiment score rolls over further (two consecutive hourly buckets lower) while contradiction ratio rises."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action_label": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If signals remain mixed/fragile with no corroborating high-authority directional catalyst."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
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 }
 ]
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T15:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T15:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T16:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T16:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 28,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided in inputs; used temporal_profile + same-day ingestion timestamps for recency emphasis.",
 "Contradictions list empty; contradiction_ratio values reflect mixed driver arenas (trade-policy uncertainty vs supply tightness) rather than explicit contradiction objects.",
 "Prior market state not supplied; state_change conservatively set to 'unchanged' (unknown prior)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}