Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 4
- top_risk_flag: contradiction_spike (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-13T06:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
- completion_state: ready_for_delivery
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| copper | B1 | Copper futures have a net upward bias over the next 24h, supported by China industrial/modernisation policy signalling and ongoing energy-transition/grid capex narratives. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 61 |
| copper | B2 | Near-term (6h) copper sentiment is improving modestly as fresh macro-policy headlines add incremental demand confidence. | 58 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 61 |
| copper | B3 | Despite a bullish baseline, downside chop/pullback risk is elevated over the next 24h due to trade-policy uncertainty and late-cycle price-level correction chatter. | 55 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 61 |
| copper | B4 | Supply-tightness/deficit framing remains a supportive background floor (24h horizon), but is not a clean intraday driver without fresh, specific inventory/mine-disruption updates. | 57 | up | fading | 24h | false | 61 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS6B_copper_2026-03-13T06:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper futures have a net upward bias over the next 24h, supported by China industrial/modernisation policy signalling and ongoing energy-transition/grid capex narratives.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"china_policy",
"industrial_demand",
"inventory"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term (6h) copper sentiment is improving modestly as fresh macro-policy headlines add incremental demand confidence.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"china_policy",
"industrial_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B3",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Despite a bullish baseline, downside chop/pullback risk is elevated over the next 24h due to trade-policy uncertainty and late-cycle price-level correction chatter.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"usd_strength",
"china_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B1",
"B2"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B4",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Supply-tightness/deficit framing remains a supportive background floor (24h horizon), but is not a clean intraday driver without fresh, specific inventory/mine-disruption updates.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply",
"inventory"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2",
"B4"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "contradiction_spike",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "copper",
"detail": "Bullish demand/industrial-policy narratives are being intermittently offset by trade/tariff uncertainty, lifting contradiction ratio in parts of the last 24h."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "copper",
"detail": "Policy headlines can flip interpretation quickly (stimulus/supportive vs trade restrictions/risk-off), increasing short-horizon reversal sensitivity."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "low",
"market": "copper",
"detail": "Intraday buckets contain limited high-authority, copper-specific microstructure signals (inventories, treatment charges, mine outage confirmations), so confidence is capped."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If directional_score_signed sustains > +20 AND contradiction_ratio stays <= 0.25 for the next 2-3 hourly buckets."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction_ratio rises >= 0.30 OR a fresh (<=2h) opposing macro/trade headline cluster appears."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If directional_score_signed drops by >= 15 points within 3 hours (momentum break) while fresh_evidence_count increases."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T07:00:00Z",
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"velocity_score": 0,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z",
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z",
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": true,
"resolution": "30m",
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"buckets": [
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T03:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T04:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T04:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T05:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-13T05:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-13T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 32,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 5,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target resolved explicitly as copper; single-market scope enforced.",
"No explicit contradiction objects were provided in input; contradiction_ratio is inferred from mixed policy headline pressure vs demand-support narratives.",
"trend_physics / trend_state_memory v2 fields were not present in the provided payload; conservative legacy scoring and recency heuristics were applied."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}