- subject_area: Uranium futures (U3O8)
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: U3O8
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-03-12T02:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| uranium |
B-UR-001 |
Uranium futures have an upward bias over the next 24h as nuclear policy/supportive reactor build narratives and supply- |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
58 |
| uranium |
B-UR-002 |
Short-horizon (next 6h) price action risk is mixed due to event-driven whipsaw from geopolitical/regulatory headlines de- |
41 |
mixed |
stable |
6h |
false |
58 |
| uranium |
B-UR-003 |
Supply-chain disruption narratives (e.g., producer/geography concentration and transport/political risk) raise upside s |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_uranium_20260312_0200Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures (U3O8)",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-001",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Uranium futures have an upward bias over the next 24h as nuclear policy/supportive reactor build narratives and supply-chain risk remain salient.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"policy_nuclear",
"reactor_demand",
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"supply_contracting"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-002"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-002",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Short-horizon (next 6h) price action risk is mixed due to event-driven whipsaw from geopolitical/regulatory headlines despite an overall constructive backdrop.",
"probability_pct": 41,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"policy_nuclear"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-001"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-003",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Supply-chain disruption narratives (e.g., producer/geography concentration and transport/political risk) raise upside skew but also increase fragility (headline sensitivity) over 24h.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"supply_contracting",
"inventory"
],
"contradicted_by": []
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-UR-001",
"B-UR-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Material share of supporting narratives are slow-burn/older-than-72h themes; directional conviction capped despite fresh reinforcement bursts."
},
{
"flag": "echo_risk_single_source_vips",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Several VIP/risk anomaly items are single-source/low-diversity; treated as low-weight confirmation only."
},
{
"flag": "headline_whipsaw_risk",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Geopolitical supply-chain and regulator-policy headlines can flip intraday sentiment despite broadly constructive demand/policy backdrop."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh policy/reactor-demand confirmations continue AND no high-authority opposing catalyst emerges within the next 6h."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If geopolitical supply-chain headlines intensify (sudden conflict/escalation, transport constraints, or producer disruption narratives)."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If a high-authority, very recent (\u22642h) policy reversal / demand-negative signal appears and contradiction rises materially."
},
{
"action": "stay_flat",
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If signal contradiction rises while fresh evidence count drops (data sparsity + mixed direction)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 85,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 21,
"acceleration_score": 22,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 53,
"bullish_pressure_score": 83,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 53,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -23,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 49,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 49,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 51,
"bullish_pressure_score": 81,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 51,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 3,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 7,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope enforced: analyzed_markets=['uranium'].",
"No prior market_state memory provided; state_change computed using neutral baseline assumption."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}