Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: cross_market_dependency
  • generated_at: 2026-03-12 00:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SILVER-01-6H Silver futures have a modest upward bias over the next 6 hours, supported primarily by precious-metals flow narratives and rate/real-yield sensitivity signals. 58 up stable 6h false 58
silver B-SILVER-02-24H Over the next 24 hours, silver sentiment remains net-positive but fragile because the freshest support is macro/flows-linked rather than uniquely silver-specific. 55 up fading 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS6B_silver_20260312T000000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SILVER-01-6H",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Silver futures have a modest upward bias over the next 6 hours, supported primarily by precious-metals flow narratives and rate/real-yield sensitivity signals.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "precious_metals_flows",
 "usd_strength",
 "real_rates",
 "mine_supply"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SILVER-02-24H",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, silver sentiment remains net-positive but fragile because the freshest support is macro/flows-linked rather than uniquely silver-specific.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "precious_metals_flows",
 "real_rates",
 "usd_strength",
 "industrial_demand",
 "mine_supply"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-SILVER-01-6H",
 "B-SILVER-02-24H"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "flag": "cross_market_dependency",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "A meaningful share of the freshest support is inferred via gold/safe-haven/ETF-flow and macro-rate narratives rather than silver-only drivers."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "flag": "data_sparsity_silver_specific",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Silver-miner and supply signals are present, but the feed is dominated by broader macro/precious-metals items; directional conviction is capped."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "flag": "authority_mix_low_tier_share",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Several admitted items report high low-authority share / echo-risk markers; increases fragility despite net-positive consensus."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "flag": "macro_rate_sensitivity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Rate/real-yield expectation narratives can flip quickly; contributes to medium reversal risk even without explicit contradictions."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=6h) precious-metals inflow / USD-weakness / real-rate-fall confirmations arrive without credible opposing signals."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If macro headlines increase contradiction or rapidly shift rate expectations (fragility sensitivity)."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If a high-authority, very fresh (<=2h) opposing macro/flows signal appears (late-breaking invalidation condition)."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If signal density drops further and remaining support is mainly stale/background without fresh confirmation."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": -12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 32,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 0,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Single-market run constrained to target_market_code='silver'.",
 "No explicit per-record physics fields present in provided input; timeseries derived conservatively from trend-level recency proxies and timestamps.",
 "No explicit contradictions provided; reversal risk is driven mainly by macro sensitivity and signal fragility rather than detected opposing acceleration."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}