Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: cross_market_dependency
- generated_at: 2026-03-12 00:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| silver | B-SILVER-01-6H | Silver futures have a modest upward bias over the next 6 hours, supported primarily by precious-metals flow narratives and rate/real-yield sensitivity signals. | 58 | up | stable | 6h | false | 58 |
| silver | B-SILVER-02-24H | Over the next 24 hours, silver sentiment remains net-positive but fragile because the freshest support is macro/flows-linked rather than uniquely silver-specific. | 55 | up | fading | 24h | false | 58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS6B_silver_20260312T000000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-SILVER-01-6H",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Silver futures have a modest upward bias over the next 6 hours, supported primarily by precious-metals flow narratives and rate/real-yield sensitivity signals.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"precious_metals_flows",
"usd_strength",
"real_rates",
"mine_supply"
],
"contradicted_by": []
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SILVER-02-24H",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, silver sentiment remains net-positive but fragile because the freshest support is macro/flows-linked rather than uniquely silver-specific.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"precious_metals_flows",
"real_rates",
"usd_strength",
"industrial_demand",
"mine_supply"
],
"contradicted_by": []
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-SILVER-01-6H",
"B-SILVER-02-24H"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "silver",
"flag": "cross_market_dependency",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "A meaningful share of the freshest support is inferred via gold/safe-haven/ETF-flow and macro-rate narratives rather than silver-only drivers."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"flag": "data_sparsity_silver_specific",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Silver-miner and supply signals are present, but the feed is dominated by broader macro/precious-metals items; directional conviction is capped."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"flag": "authority_mix_low_tier_share",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Several admitted items report high low-authority share / echo-risk markers; increases fragility despite net-positive consensus."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"flag": "macro_rate_sensitivity",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Rate/real-yield expectation narratives can flip quickly; contributes to medium reversal risk even without explicit contradictions."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=6h) precious-metals inflow / USD-weakness / real-rate-fall confirmations arrive without credible opposing signals."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If macro headlines increase contradiction or rapidly shift rate expectations (fragility sensitivity)."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If a high-authority, very fresh (<=2h) opposing macro/flows signal appears (late-breaking invalidation condition)."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If signal density drops further and remaining support is mainly stale/background without fresh confirmation."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"silver"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 32,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 0,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market run constrained to target_market_code='silver'.",
"No explicit per-record physics fields present in provided input; timeseries derived conservatively from trend-level recency proxies and timestamps.",
"No explicit contradictions provided; reversal risk is driven mainly by macro sensitivity and signal fragility rather than detected opposing acceleration."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}