Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-NG-001
- generated_at: 2026-03-12T15:05:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | B-NG-001 | Geopolitical and LNG supply-chain disruption narratives (Qatar/Ras Laffan, Iran-linked tensions, maritime logistics) are adding a risk-premium that biases natural gas futures upward over the next 6–24 hours. | 62 | up | fading | 24h | false | 63 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-002 | Near-term headline flow remains disruption-skewed (shipping/logistics + conflict escalation risk), keeping intraday upside tails elevated even if prices chop. | 58 | up | stable | 6h | false | 63 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-003 | Storage / EIA-linked items (and any surprise storage builds or demand softness) remain the most plausible near-term counter-force that could fade the geopolitical premium and trigger a pullback. | 44 | down | accelerating | 24h | false | 63 |
Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260312T150500Z-natural_gas", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-12T15:05:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Natural gas futures", "market_code": "natural_gas" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 63, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "natural_gas", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-NG-001", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Geopolitical and LNG supply-chain disruption narratives (Qatar/Ras Laffan, Iran-linked tensions, maritime logistics) are adding a risk-premium that biases natural gas futures upward over the next 6\u201324 hours.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "export_lng", "pipeline_flows", "production_outages", "geopolitical_risk_premium" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-NG-003" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-NG-002", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Near-term headline flow remains disruption-skewed (shipping/logistics + conflict escalation risk), keeping intraday upside tails elevated even if prices chop.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "export_lng", "shipping_constraints", "headline_velocity" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-NG-003" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-NG-003", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Storage / EIA-linked items (and any surprise storage builds or demand softness) remain the most plausible near-term counter-force that could fade the geopolitical premium and trigger a pullback.", "probability_pct": 44, "direction": "down", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "storage", "weather_demand", "data_release_risk" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-NG-001", "B-NG-002" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-NG-001", "B-NG-002", "B-NG-003" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-001", "market": "natural_gas", "type": "event_driven_fragility", "severity": "medium", "details": "Direction is supported by fast-moving geopolitical / LNG-logistics narratives that can de-escalate quickly, increasing whipsaw risk." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-002", "market": "natural_gas", "type": "contradiction_risk_storage_vs_headlines", "severity": "medium", "details": "Storage/EIA-linked signals can counteract disruption headlines; a storage surprise can rapidly compress the risk premium." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-003", "market": "natural_gas", "type": "stale_context_overhang", "severity": "low", "details": "Some supporting narratives have multi-day spans; they contribute background bias but should not dominate without fresh confirmation." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-004", "market": "natural_gas", "type": "weather_demand_data_sparsity", "severity": "medium", "details": "Weather/demand drivers are under-specified in admitted signals, lowering confidence in demand-side confirmation." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "medium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias watch while fresh disruption headlines persist and no credible de-escalation / flow-normalisation appears in the next cycle." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "high", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if additional maritime / Gulf-region incidents emerge or if LNG facility disruption headlines broaden." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "medium", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if storage/EIA-linked updates turn materially bearish (e.g., strong build / weaker demand) or if key geopolitical tension signals de-escalate." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 45, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 35, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 46, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 36, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 42, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 10, "acceleration_score": 7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": -6, "acceleration_score": -16, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 43, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 41, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 16, "acceleration_score": 10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": -8, "acceleration_score": -24, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": -6, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 31, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 14, "acceleration_score": 10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 28, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": -8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 75, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": -10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 71, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 50, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 4, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 11, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Scope locked to single market: natural_gas (explicit).", "Directional inference: disruption-risk headlines are treated as upside price pressure; storage/EIA-linked items treated as potential counter-force.", "No explicit contradiction objects provided in input; contradiction_ratio is conservatively modelled from mixed driver categories rather than explicit contradictions." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }