Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: late_breaking_invalidation
- generated_at: 2026-03-12 17:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Fragile
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 1
- kill_switch_markets_count: 1
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| lithium |
BLF-LI-001 |
Near-term lithium futures sentiment is mixed-to-downside as late-breaking battery chemistry/substitution headlines and EV-policy pushback compete with ongoing EV adoption support. |
56 |
mixed |
accelerating |
6h |
true |
82 |
| lithium |
BLF-LI-002 |
Over 24h, lithium demand-support narratives (EV adoption, charging buildout, battery manufacturing/recycling capacity) remain present, but are being increasingly challenged by substitution/chemistry and regulatory uncertainty signals. |
54 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
true |
82 |
| lithium |
BLF-LI-003 |
Supply-side expansion/technology signals (extraction capacity and producer tech progress) add medium-term price-pressure risk, limiting bullish conviction even when EV demand signals improve. |
52 |
down |
fading |
24h |
true |
82 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_lithium_20260312T170000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-12T17:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "BLF-LI-001",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Near-term lithium futures sentiment is mixed-to-downside as late-breaking battery chemistry/substitution headlines and EV-policy pushback compete with ongoing EV adoption support.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"raw_news_feed:CATL sodium-ion battery headline (substitution risk)",
"raw_news_feed:US federal lawsuit against California EV rules (policy uncertainty)",
"raw_news_feed:UK ZEV mandate review pressure (demand uncertainty)",
"raw_news_feed:EV adoption / charging buildout support (offsetting)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"BLF-LI-002"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "BLF-LI-002",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Over 24h, lithium demand-support narratives (EV adoption, charging buildout, battery manufacturing/recycling capacity) remain present, but are being increasingly challenged by substitution/chemistry and regulatory uncertainty signals.",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"T-009 (BYD: electric vehicle adoption)",
"T-031 (regulatory (electric vehicles))",
"T-004 (CATL: battery manufacturing capacity expansion)",
"T-032 (battery recycling (battery technology))"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"BLF-LI-001"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "BLF-LI-003",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Supply-side expansion/technology signals (extraction capacity and producer tech progress) add medium-term price-pressure risk, limiting bullish conviction even when EV demand signals improve.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"T-016 (Albemarle: lithium extraction)",
"T-013 (Ganfeng Lithium: technological)",
"T-004 (battery manufacturing capacity expansion as capex cycle proxy)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If EV adoption accelerates sharply, demand could dominate supply expansion impact"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "high",
"state_change": "invalidated_stale",
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": true,
"late_breaking_alert": true,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"BLF-LI-001",
"BLF-LI-002",
"BLF-LI-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "late_breaking_invalidation",
"market": "lithium",
"detail": "Fresh opposing catalysts clustered inside ~1\u20132h window increased whipsaw risk; conviction capped pending corroboration."
},
{
"flag": "contradiction_spike",
"market": "lithium",
"detail": "Simultaneous pro-EV investment/support and anti/uncertainty regulatory headlines created mixed directional pressure."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"market": "lithium",
"detail": "Older (Feb) expansion/recycling narratives were downweighted; near-term state driven by newer policy/chemistry items."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_high_authority",
"market": "lithium",
"detail": "Recent buckets rely on a small number of discrete items; many background signals are slow-burn and/or lower-tier sourced."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Directional state remains neutral_mixed with fragility_score_0_100 >= 70."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "high",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Opposing catalysts arrive within <=2h and contradiction remains elevated (policy + battery-chemistry substitution vs EV adoption support)."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "high",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Hourly directional_score_signed swing magnitude >= 15 (timeseries shows a sharp late drop)."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "hard_de_risk_watch",
"trigger_condition": "thesis_kill_switch=true persists for >6h without corroboration resolving the mixed signal."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": [
"lithium"
]
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.65,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.65,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.65,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 13,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 3,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.65,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 13,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 3,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.65,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 19,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.65,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 13,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 3,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.65,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 13,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 3,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.65,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.65,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.65,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 1,
"bullish_pressure_score": 11,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 1,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.65,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 1,
"bullish_pressure_score": 11,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 1,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.65,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.65,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": -18,
"velocity_score": -18,
"acceleration_score": -17,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": -12,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 24,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": -10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": -8,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": -17,
"velocity_score": -22,
"acceleration_score": -25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.72,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 9,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -18,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 22,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bearish"
}
}
}