Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: late_breaking_invalidation
  • generated_at: 2026-03-12 17:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Fragile
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 1
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 1

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium BLF-LI-001 Near-term lithium futures sentiment is mixed-to-downside as late-breaking battery chemistry/substitution headlines and EV-policy pushback compete with ongoing EV adoption support. 56 mixed accelerating 6h true 82
lithium BLF-LI-002 Over 24h, lithium demand-support narratives (EV adoption, charging buildout, battery manufacturing/recycling capacity) remain present, but are being increasingly challenged by substitution/chemistry and regulatory uncertainty signals. 54 mixed stable 24h true 82
lithium BLF-LI-003 Supply-side expansion/technology signals (extraction capacity and producer tech progress) add medium-term price-pressure risk, limiting bullish conviction even when EV demand signals improve. 52 down fading 24h true 82

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_lithium_20260312T170000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-12T17:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "BLF-LI-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Near-term lithium futures sentiment is mixed-to-downside as late-breaking battery chemistry/substitution headlines and EV-policy pushback compete with ongoing EV adoption support.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "raw_news_feed:CATL sodium-ion battery headline (substitution risk)",
 "raw_news_feed:US federal lawsuit against California EV rules (policy uncertainty)",
 "raw_news_feed:UK ZEV mandate review pressure (demand uncertainty)",
 "raw_news_feed:EV adoption / charging buildout support (offsetting)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "BLF-LI-002"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "BLF-LI-002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Over 24h, lithium demand-support narratives (EV adoption, charging buildout, battery manufacturing/recycling capacity) remain present, but are being increasingly challenged by substitution/chemistry and regulatory uncertainty signals.",
 "probability_pct": 54,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "T-009 (BYD: electric vehicle adoption)",
 "T-031 (regulatory (electric vehicles))",
 "T-004 (CATL: battery manufacturing capacity expansion)",
 "T-032 (battery recycling (battery technology))"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "BLF-LI-001"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "BLF-LI-003",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Supply-side expansion/technology signals (extraction capacity and producer tech progress) add medium-term price-pressure risk, limiting bullish conviction even when EV demand signals improve.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "T-016 (Albemarle: lithium extraction)",
 "T-013 (Ganfeng Lithium: technological)",
 "T-004 (battery manufacturing capacity expansion as capex cycle proxy)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "If EV adoption accelerates sharply, demand could dominate supply expansion impact"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "high",
 "state_change": "invalidated_stale",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": true,
 "late_breaking_alert": true,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "BLF-LI-001",
 "BLF-LI-002",
 "BLF-LI-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "late_breaking_invalidation",
 "market": "lithium",
 "detail": "Fresh opposing catalysts clustered inside ~1\u20132h window increased whipsaw risk; conviction capped pending corroboration."
 },
 {
 "flag": "contradiction_spike",
 "market": "lithium",
 "detail": "Simultaneous pro-EV investment/support and anti/uncertainty regulatory headlines created mixed directional pressure."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "lithium",
 "detail": "Older (Feb) expansion/recycling narratives were downweighted; near-term state driven by newer policy/chemistry items."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_high_authority",
 "market": "lithium",
 "detail": "Recent buckets rely on a small number of discrete items; many background signals are slow-burn and/or lower-tier sourced."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional state remains neutral_mixed with fragility_score_0_100 >= 70."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Opposing catalysts arrive within <=2h and contradiction remains elevated (policy + battery-chemistry substitution vs EV adoption support)."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Hourly directional_score_signed swing magnitude >= 15 (timeseries shows a sharp late drop)."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "hard_de_risk_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "thesis_kill_switch=true persists for >6h without corroboration resolving the mixed signal."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ]
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.65,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.65,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.65,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 13,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
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 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.65,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 13,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 3,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.65,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 19,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
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 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
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 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 13,
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T02:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 13,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 3,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
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 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.65,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.65,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 1,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 11,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 1,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.65,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 1,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 11,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 1,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.65,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": -18,
 "velocity_score": -18,
 "acceleration_score": -17,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 24,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": -10,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": -8,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": -6,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-12T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-12T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": -17,
 "velocity_score": -22,
 "acceleration_score": -25,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.72,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 9,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -18,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 22,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bearish"
 }
 }
}