• subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-03-11 17:10 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-1 Near-term sentiment bias remains upward as pro-nuclear policy and reactor-build narratives continue to accumulate fresh reinforcement. 62 up accelerating 24h false 55
uranium B-UR-2 Supply-side risk framing (geopolitical/supply-chain) is acting as an added bullish tailwind to uranium price expectations. 58 up stable 24h false 55
uranium B-UR-3 Short-horizon (6h) follow-through risk is elevated because much of the narrative is policy-led and partially supported by lower-authority/echo-prone sources, increasing whipsaw potential. 44 mixed stable 6h false 55
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-20260311T171000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-11T17:10:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-1",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Near-term sentiment bias remains upward as pro-nuclear policy and reactor-build narratives continue to accumulate fresh reinforcement.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "policy_nuclear",
 "reactor_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-UR-3"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-2",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Supply-side risk framing (geopolitical/supply-chain) is acting as an added bullish tailwind to uranium price expectations.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_supply_risk",
 "supply_contracting",
 "inventory"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-UR-3"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-3",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Short-horizon (6h) follow-through risk is elevated because much of the narrative is policy-led and partially supported by lower-authority/echo-prone sources, increasing whipsaw potential.",
 "probability_pct": 44,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "policy_nuclear",
 "information_quality"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-UR-1"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-UR-1",
 "B-UR-2",
 "B-UR-3"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "A meaningful share of supporting themes are medium/long-horizon policy narratives; short-horizon price reaction can be less reliable without discrete new datapoints."
 },
 {
 "flag": "echo_risk_information_quality",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Several high-novelty items are single-source VIP outliers; broader trend bundles show non-trivial low-authority share."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Policy/regulatory headlines can reverse quickly; monitor for abrupt opposing regulatory cues."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional high-authority reinforcement arrives within the next 6h without comparable opposing signals, maintain a long-bias watch posture."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction signals emerge (new credible anti-nuclear policy / supply easing confirmation), upgrade to reversal_watch."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If sentiment becomes dominated by single-source items (no corroboration over 24h) while volatility rises, treat as hard_de_risk_watch for paper signals."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If multiple policy headlines cluster in a short window (<=2h), treat as volatility_watch due to headline-sensitivity."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 21,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 29,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": -12,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -5,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 12,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 6,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=uranium.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction handled via source-diversity/echo-risk heuristics.",
 "Prior state not provided; state_change computed against assumed neutral baseline (unknown_prior -> neutral).",
 "Timeseries bucket values are conservative, derived from available trend temporal profiles and recency cues (no per-record physics present in input)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}