- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-03-11 17:10 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| uranium |
B-UR-1 |
Near-term sentiment bias remains upward as pro-nuclear policy and reactor-build narratives continue to accumulate fresh reinforcement. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
55 |
| uranium |
B-UR-2 |
Supply-side risk framing (geopolitical/supply-chain) is acting as an added bullish tailwind to uranium price expectations. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
55 |
| uranium |
B-UR-3 |
Short-horizon (6h) follow-through risk is elevated because much of the narrative is policy-led and partially supported by lower-authority/echo-prone sources, increasing whipsaw potential. |
44 |
mixed |
stable |
6h |
false |
55 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-20260311T171000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-11T17:10:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-1",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Near-term sentiment bias remains upward as pro-nuclear policy and reactor-build narratives continue to accumulate fresh reinforcement.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"policy_nuclear",
"reactor_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-3"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-2",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Supply-side risk framing (geopolitical/supply-chain) is acting as an added bullish tailwind to uranium price expectations.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"supply_contracting",
"inventory"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-3"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-3",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Short-horizon (6h) follow-through risk is elevated because much of the narrative is policy-led and partially supported by lower-authority/echo-prone sources, increasing whipsaw potential.",
"probability_pct": 44,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"policy_nuclear",
"information_quality"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-1"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-UR-1",
"B-UR-2",
"B-UR-3"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "A meaningful share of supporting themes are medium/long-horizon policy narratives; short-horizon price reaction can be less reliable without discrete new datapoints."
},
{
"flag": "echo_risk_information_quality",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Several high-novelty items are single-source VIP outliers; broader trend bundles show non-trivial low-authority share."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Policy/regulatory headlines can reverse quickly; monitor for abrupt opposing regulatory cues."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional high-authority reinforcement arrives within the next 6h without comparable opposing signals, maintain a long-bias watch posture."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction signals emerge (new credible anti-nuclear policy / supply easing confirmation), upgrade to reversal_watch."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If sentiment becomes dominated by single-source items (no corroboration over 24h) while volatility rises, treat as hard_de_risk_watch for paper signals."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If multiple policy headlines cluster in a short window (<=2h), treat as volatility_watch due to headline-sensitivity."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 21,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -12,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -5,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 6,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=uranium.",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction handled via source-diversity/echo-risk heuristics.",
"Prior state not provided; state_change computed against assumed neutral baseline (unknown_prior -> neutral).",
"Timeseries bucket values are conservative, derived from available trend temporal profiles and recency cues (no per-record physics present in input)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}