Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: uranium
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-UR-001 (data_sparsity, medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-11T16:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| uranium | B-UR-001 | Policy and regulatory support for nuclear power (EU/US focus) is rising, strengthening forward uranium demand expectations. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 60 |
| uranium | B-UR-002 | Geopolitical and supplier concentration risks (e.g., Kazakhstan/Niger-linked narratives) keep perceived supply tight, biasing uranium pricing upward. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 60 |
| uranium | B-UR-003 | Near-term uranium price response may be capped by narrative noisiness (policy/innovation headlines not directly translating into spot/futures urgency within hours). | 46 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 60 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_uranium_2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-001",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Policy and regulatory support for nuclear power (EU/US focus) is rising, strengthening forward uranium demand expectations.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"policy_nuclear",
"reactor_demand",
"regulatory_signals"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-002",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Geopolitical and supplier concentration risks (e.g., Kazakhstan/Niger-linked narratives) keep perceived supply tight, biasing uranium pricing upward.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"supply_contracting",
"supply_chain_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": []
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-003",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Near-term uranium price response may be capped by narrative noisiness (policy/innovation headlines not directly translating into spot/futures urgency within hours).",
"probability_pct": 46,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"headline_noise",
"data_sparsity_intraday",
"slow_burn_policy_timeline"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-001",
"B-UR-002"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-UR-001",
"B-UR-002"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-UR-001",
"market": "uranium",
"type": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Signal set is headline/policy heavy with limited direct inventory/contracting quantification inside the last 24h."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-UR-002",
"market": "uranium",
"type": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Multiple overlapping policy/regulatory narratives may rotate quickly without clear price-confirming follow-through."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-UR-003",
"market": "uranium",
"type": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Several supporting items show slow-burn/dormant temporal profiles; they support backdrop but are not decisive intraday."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch while fresh policy/supply-risk headlines persist and net directional score stays >= +20."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If contradictory supply/demand headlines emerge within a 1\u20132h window (contradiction ratio rises materially), expect higher whipsaw risk."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate to reversal watch only if a high-authority, fresh (<=2h) opposing signal appears and directional score drops below +20."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 49,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 49,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 10,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=uranium.",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; reversal risk derived from mixed narrative quality + potential headline rotation.",
"State_change set to new_bullish with implicit unknown_prior->neutral assumption (no prior state memory supplied)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}