• subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: silver
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-11T17:20:28Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SI-001 Near-term silver futures sentiment skews upward as precious-metals risk appetite and silver-linked supply/producer narratives show fresh reinforcement. 62 up accelerating 6h false 56
silver B-SI-002 Over the next 24h, silver sentiment remains modestly constructive, but the edge is fragile due to sparse direct price-specific evidence and potential USD/real-rate crosswinds. 58 up stable 24h false 56
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS_silver_20260311T172028Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-11T17:20:28Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-001",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Near-term silver futures sentiment skews upward as precious-metals risk appetite and silver-linked supply/producer narratives show fresh reinforcement.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "precious_metals_flows",
 "mine_supply",
 "risk_off_bid (proxy via precious-metals flow narratives)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "usd_strength_shock",
 "real_rates_repricing"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-002",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, silver sentiment remains modestly constructive, but the edge is fragile due to sparse direct price-specific evidence and potential USD/real-rate crosswinds.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "precious_metals_flows",
 "macro_uncertainty"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "usd_strength_shock",
 "real_rates_repricing",
 "risk_sentiment_flip"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-SI-001",
 "B-SI-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag": "data_sparsity",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Silver-directional inference relies on a small number of mapped, silver-adjacent narratives (miners/supply + precious-metals flow proxies) rather than dense, price-specific updates."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "macro_crosswind_usd_real_rates",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Macro arenas (USD strength, real-rates repricing) are present in the flight plan but not strongly resolved into directional opposing evidence in this cycle; potential for fast narrative flip remains."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "single_source_supply_signal_present",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "low",
 "rationale": "A silver-linked VIP supply/producer item is present with single-source characteristics; treated as low-weight context only."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "low",
 "rationale": "One silver-market growth narrative appears dormant (low recency-weighted heat) and is down-weighted versus fresher items."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If net directional_score stays >= +20 for two consecutive 1h buckets and contradiction_ratio remains <= 0.25, maintain watch_long_bias."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fragility_score rises to >= 65 or 1h velocity_score magnitude exceeds 10, activate volatility_watch."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If directional_score falls below +10 within <= 3 hours while contradiction_ratio rises above 0.30, activate reversal_watch."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If directional_score moves into [-19, +19] and stays there for 3 consecutive 1h buckets, prefer stay_flat."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T17:20:28Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T18:20:28Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T18:20:28Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T19:20:28Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T19:20:28Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T20:20:28Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T20:20:28Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T21:20:28Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T21:20:28Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T22:20:28Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T22:20:28Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T23:20:28Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T23:20:28Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T00:20:28Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T00:20:28Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T01:20:28Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T01:20:28Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T02:20:28Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T02:20:28Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T03:20:28Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T03:20:28Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T04:20:28Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T04:20:28Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T05:20:28Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T05:20:28Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T06:20:28Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T06:20:28Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T07:20:28Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T07:20:28Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T08:20:28Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T08:20:28Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T09:20:28Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T09:20:28Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T10:20:28Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T10:20:28Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T11:20:28Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T11:20:28Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T12:20:28Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T12:20:28Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T13:20:28Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T13:20:28Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T14:20:28Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T14:20:28Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T15:20:28Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T15:20:28Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T16:20:28Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T16:20:28Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T17:20:28Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T17:20:28Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T18:20:28Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 35,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 5,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 5,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope locked: silver (explicit flight plan).",
 "Prior state not provided; state_change computed assuming prior neutral_mixed -> new_bullish.",
 "Unmapped signals present (non-silver commodities/macro/legal/solar themes) were not force-mapped; treated as out-of-scope for single-market CIS."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}