- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: silver
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: data_sparsity (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-11T17:20:28Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| silver |
B-SI-001 |
Near-term silver futures sentiment skews upward as precious-metals risk appetite and silver-linked supply/producer narratives show fresh reinforcement. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
56 |
| silver |
B-SI-002 |
Over the next 24h, silver sentiment remains modestly constructive, but the edge is fragile due to sparse direct price-specific evidence and potential USD/real-rate crosswinds. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
56 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS_silver_20260311T172028Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-11T17:20:28Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-001",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Near-term silver futures sentiment skews upward as precious-metals risk appetite and silver-linked supply/producer narratives show fresh reinforcement.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"precious_metals_flows",
"mine_supply",
"risk_off_bid (proxy via precious-metals flow narratives)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"usd_strength_shock",
"real_rates_repricing"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-002",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, silver sentiment remains modestly constructive, but the edge is fragile due to sparse direct price-specific evidence and potential USD/real-rate crosswinds.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"precious_metals_flows",
"macro_uncertainty"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"usd_strength_shock",
"real_rates_repricing",
"risk_sentiment_flip"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-SI-001",
"B-SI-002"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag": "data_sparsity",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Silver-directional inference relies on a small number of mapped, silver-adjacent narratives (miners/supply + precious-metals flow proxies) rather than dense, price-specific updates."
},
{
"risk_flag": "macro_crosswind_usd_real_rates",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Macro arenas (USD strength, real-rates repricing) are present in the flight plan but not strongly resolved into directional opposing evidence in this cycle; potential for fast narrative flip remains."
},
{
"risk_flag": "single_source_supply_signal_present",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "low",
"rationale": "A silver-linked VIP supply/producer item is present with single-source characteristics; treated as low-weight context only."
},
{
"risk_flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "low",
"rationale": "One silver-market growth narrative appears dormant (low recency-weighted heat) and is down-weighted versus fresher items."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If net directional_score stays >= +20 for two consecutive 1h buckets and contradiction_ratio remains <= 0.25, maintain watch_long_bias."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fragility_score rises to >= 65 or 1h velocity_score magnitude exceeds 10, activate volatility_watch."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If directional_score falls below +10 within <= 3 hours while contradiction_ratio rises above 0.30, activate reversal_watch."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If directional_score moves into [-19, +19] and stays there for 3 consecutive 1h buckets, prefer stay_flat."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"silver"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T17:20:28Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T18:20:28Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T18:20:28Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T19:20:28Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T19:20:28Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T20:20:28Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T20:20:28Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T21:20:28Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T21:20:28Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T22:20:28Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T22:20:28Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T23:20:28Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T23:20:28Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T00:20:28Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T00:20:28Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T01:20:28Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T01:20:28Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T02:20:28Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T02:20:28Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T03:20:28Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T03:20:28Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T04:20:28Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T04:20:28Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T05:20:28Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T05:20:28Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T06:20:28Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T06:20:28Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T07:20:28Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T07:20:28Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T08:20:28Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T08:20:28Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T09:20:28Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T09:20:28Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T10:20:28Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T10:20:28Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T11:20:28Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T11:20:28Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T12:20:28Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T12:20:28Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T13:20:28Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T13:20:28Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T14:20:28Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T14:20:28Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T15:20:28Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T15:20:28Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T16:20:28Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T16:20:28Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T17:20:28Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T17:20:28Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T18:20:28Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 35,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 5,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 5,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope locked: silver (explicit flight plan).",
"Prior state not provided; state_change computed assuming prior neutral_mixed -> new_bullish.",
"Unmapped signals present (non-silver commodities/macro/legal/solar themes) were not force-mapped; treated as out-of-scope for single-market CIS."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}