Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: low_authority_skew
- generated_at: 2026-03-11T18:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| lithium |
B-LI-001 |
Lithium futures sentiment remains net-positive over next 24h as EV adoption / regulatory-support narratives dominate. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
57 |
| lithium |
B-LI-002 |
Upside follow-through may be capped as recycling/processing and supply-chain expansion raise medium-term supply expectations. |
55 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
57 |
| lithium |
B-LI-003 |
Reversal risk elevated: China regulatory-control headlines could rapidly flip sentiment if enforcement tightens. |
48 |
down |
fading |
6h |
false |
57 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_20260311T180000Z_lithium",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-001",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, lithium futures sentiment remains net-positive as EV adoption/regulatory-support narratives dominate the feed and continue to refresh.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"EV adoption + charging infrastructure support (demand-side narrative)",
"Battery manufacturing capacity expansion (downstream demand pull)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-002",
"B-LI-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-002",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Upside follow-through may be capped (choppier tape) as recycling/processing and broader supply-chain expansion narratives increase medium-term supply expectations.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Battery recycling technology and scale-up narrative",
"Supply-chain capacity expansion / refining capacity themes"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-001"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-003",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Reversal risk is elevated versus a clean trend: regulatory-control headlines (China policy / resource governance) can rapidly flip sentiment if enforcement/controls tighten unexpectedly.",
"probability_pct": 48,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"China policy / Ministry-level governance over critical minerals",
"Single-source risk anomaly amplification potential"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-001"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-LI-001",
"B-LI-002",
"B-LI-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"flag": "low_authority_skew",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Large share of supporting narrative volume is from lower-tier / single-source items, increasing fragility."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"flag": "thematic_supply_vs_demand_tension",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Demand-positive EV adoption signals coexist with supply-increasing recycling/expansion narratives, lifting contradiction risk without explicit negative headlines."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"flag": "policy_overhang_china",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Regulatory-control narratives can trigger rapid sentiment reversals despite otherwise constructive demand tone."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"flag": "intraday_bucket_sparsity",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Intraday signal shape is driven by a small number of very recent updates; confidence is therefore capped."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh supportive EV/battery-demand headlines continue to print over the next 6h without a policy-control counter-headline."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "A high-authority, very-recent (<=2h) China policy / critical-minerals control headline prints that directly implies tighter supply governance or demand suppression."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Multiple single-source VIP-style items cluster within a few hours, increasing narrative whipsaw risk."
},
{
"action": "stay_flat",
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score falls back into neutral range (|score| < 20) for 6+ consecutive hourly buckets with rising contradiction."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 17,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 17,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 19,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 19,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -7,
"acceleration_score": -11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 40,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 8,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 3,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior state not provided (unknown_prior); state_change emitted as new_bullish.",
"Contradictions array empty; reversal_risk derived from policy-overhang + supply/demand tension + intraday sparsity.",
"VIP outliers are mostly single-source; included as freshness but down-weighted in conviction."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}