Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: low_authority_skew
  • generated_at: 2026-03-11T18:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-LI-001 Lithium futures sentiment remains net-positive over next 24h as EV adoption / regulatory-support narratives dominate. 62 up accelerating 24h false 57
lithium B-LI-002 Upside follow-through may be capped as recycling/processing and supply-chain expansion raise medium-term supply expectations. 55 mixed stable 24h false 57
lithium B-LI-003 Reversal risk elevated: China regulatory-control headlines could rapidly flip sentiment if enforcement tightens. 48 down fading 6h false 57

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_20260311T180000Z_lithium",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, lithium futures sentiment remains net-positive as EV adoption/regulatory-support narratives dominate the feed and continue to refresh.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "EV adoption + charging infrastructure support (demand-side narrative)",
 "Battery manufacturing capacity expansion (downstream demand pull)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-LI-002",
 "B-LI-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Upside follow-through may be capped (choppier tape) as recycling/processing and broader supply-chain expansion narratives increase medium-term supply expectations.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Battery recycling technology and scale-up narrative",
 "Supply-chain capacity expansion / refining capacity themes"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-LI-001"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-003",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Reversal risk is elevated versus a clean trend: regulatory-control headlines (China policy / resource governance) can rapidly flip sentiment if enforcement/controls tighten unexpectedly.",
 "probability_pct": 48,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "China policy / Ministry-level governance over critical minerals",
 "Single-source risk anomaly amplification potential"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-LI-001"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-LI-001",
 "B-LI-002",
 "B-LI-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "flag": "low_authority_skew",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Large share of supporting narrative volume is from lower-tier / single-source items, increasing fragility."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "flag": "thematic_supply_vs_demand_tension",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Demand-positive EV adoption signals coexist with supply-increasing recycling/expansion narratives, lifting contradiction risk without explicit negative headlines."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "flag": "policy_overhang_china",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Regulatory-control narratives can trigger rapid sentiment reversals despite otherwise constructive demand tone."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "flag": "intraday_bucket_sparsity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Intraday signal shape is driven by a small number of very recent updates; confidence is therefore capped."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh supportive EV/battery-demand headlines continue to print over the next 6h without a policy-control counter-headline."
 },
 {
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "A high-authority, very-recent (<=2h) China policy / critical-minerals control headline prints that directly implies tighter supply governance or demand suppression."
 },
 {
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Multiple single-source VIP-style items cluster within a few hours, increasing narrative whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score falls back into neutral range (|score| < 20) for 6+ consecutive hourly buckets with rising contradiction."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 17,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 17,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 19,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 19,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": -7,
 "acceleration_score": -11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 29,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 16,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 40,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 8,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 3,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior state not provided (unknown_prior); state_change emitted as new_bullish.",
 "Contradictions array empty; reversal_risk derived from policy-overhang + supply/demand tension + intraday sparsity.",
 "VIP outliers are mostly single-source; included as freshness but down-weighted in conviction."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}