Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: lithium
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: mixed_drivers_contradiction
  • generated_at: 2026-03-11T17:34:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-lithium-24h-demand-tech-tailwind Over the next 24h, lithium futures sentiment remains modestly skewed upward as battery-technology and EV ecosystem headlines dominate the tape, despite mixed policy/regulatory noise. 58 up stable 24h false 64
lithium B-lithium-6h-mixed-but-upside-lean Over the next 6h, lithium futures sentiment stays mixed but with a slight upside lean; headline flow is more supportive than adverse, yet not clean enough for high conviction. 54 mixed accelerating 6h false 64
lithium B-lithium-downside-tail-policy Downside tail risk remains present over the next 24h: policy and incentive uncertainty can quickly flip sentiment from modestly bullish to neutral. 42 down fading 24h false 64

Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260311T173400Z-lithium", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-11T17:34:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Lithium futures", "market_code": "lithium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 55, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 64, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "lithium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "lithium" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-lithium-24h-demand-tech-tailwind", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Over the next 24h, lithium futures sentiment remains modestly skewed upward as battery-technology and EV ecosystem headlines dominate the tape, despite mixed policy/regulatory noise.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Battery technology progress / solid-state roadmap headlines (CATL, university research)", "EV adoption/infrastructure continuation signals (policy/infrastructure items)", "Persistent narrative reinforcement across multiple trend clusters" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Near-term policy uncertainty signals impacting deployment economics", "Regulatory friction headlines in specific EV/ride-hailing subsegments", "Supply-side efficiency/recovery/recycling narratives (potential price-capping)" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-lithium-6h-mixed-but-upside-lean", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Over the next 6h, lithium futures sentiment stays mixed but with a slight upside lean; headline flow is more supportive than adverse, yet not clean enough for high conviction.", "probability_pct": 54, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Fresh high-visibility battery/EV manufacturing roadmap items", "Recent cluster heat/recency surge into the latest buckets" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Fresh but low-authority single-source regulatory negatives", "Contradictory supply-chain efficiency narratives" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-lithium-downside-tail-policy", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Downside tail risk remains present over the next 24h: policy and incentive uncertainty can quickly flip sentiment from modestly bullish to neutral.", "probability_pct": 42, "direction": "down", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Policy/incentive uncertainty and project-economics concerns (energy storage / supply chain compliance themes)", "Regulatory enforcement friction risk" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Strong ongoing battery-technology / capacity-expansion narrative", "EV adoption and charging buildout persistence" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "lithium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-lithium-24h-demand-tech-tailwind", "B-lithium-6h-mixed-but-upside-lean", "B-lithium-downside-tail-policy" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "mixed_drivers_contradiction", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Demand-positive battery/EV headlines coexist with policy/regulatory friction and supply-efficiency narratives; contradiction elevated vs a clean trend." }, { "flag": "low_authority_concentration_in_fast_lane", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Several freshest VIP items are single-source / low-tier domains; treat as directionally informative but fragile until corroborated." }, { "flag": "policy_headline_sensitivity", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Policy/incentive uncertainty can cause fast sentiment re-pricing even if tech/demand narratives remain constructive." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "If fresh battery/EV demand-positive headlines continue to outnumber policy/regulatory negatives over the next 6\u201324h while contradiction ratio stabilises or falls." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "If policy/regulatory headlines cluster within a short window (<=6h) and contradiction ratio rises materially, indicating whipsaw risk." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "If a higher-authority, very fresh (<=2h) opposing signal emerges that directly implies demand destruction or supply glut and is corroborated by a second source." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "low", "action": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "If net sentiment score compresses back toward neutral (|directional_score_signed| < 20) with rising fragility, indicating insufficient edge." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "lithium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T17:34:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T18:34:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.32, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T18:34:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T19:34:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.32, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T19:34:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T20:34:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.32, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T20:34:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T21:34:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.32, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T21:34:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T22:34:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.32, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T22:34:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T23:34:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.32, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T23:34:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T00:34:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.32, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T00:34:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T01:34:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.32, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T01:34:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T02:34:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.32, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T02:34:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T03:34:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.32, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T03:34:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T04:34:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.32, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T04:34:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T05:34:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T05:34:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T06:34:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T06:34:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T07:34:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T07:34:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T08:34:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T08:34:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T09:34:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T09:34:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T10:34:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T10:34:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T11:34:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 10, "acceleration_score": 10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.34, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T11:34:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T12:34:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": -14, "contradiction_ratio": 0.35, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T12:34:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T13:34:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.37, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T13:34:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T14:34:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 29, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 29, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.37, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T14:34:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T15:34:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.39, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T15:34:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T16:34:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": -8, "acceleration_score": -5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.45, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 35, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T16:34:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T17:34:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 17, "acceleration_score": 25, "contradiction_ratio": 0.4, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 35, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 18, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 17, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 4, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target scope pinned explicitly to lithium (single-market).", "Physics v2 fields were not present in the provided payload; synthesis used available proxies (trend temporal_profile heat, evidence_recency_proxy newest timestamps, and qualitative sentiment tags).", "No high-authority <=2h opposing signal detected; late-breaking invalidation sentinel not triggered.", "Prior market state not provided; state_change treated as transition from unknown_prior to current bullish state." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }