Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_risk
  • generated_at: 2026-03-11T09:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-crude-001 Near-term (6h–24h) risk premium remains elevated for Brent due to persistent Middle East geopolitical/security headlines and maritime route/chokepoint sensitivity. 63 up accelerating 6h false 62
crude_oil B-crude-002 Macro-demand downside chatter (recession-risk framing) can cap upside and increase pullback probability if headlines de-escalate. 44 down stable 24h false 62
crude_oil B-crude-003 Directional skew is bullish, but path is headline-driven; abrupt reversals are plausible on any credible de-escalation or supply reassurance update. 58 mixed accelerating 6h false 62

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260311T090000Z-crude_oil", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Brent crude oil futures", "market_code": "crude_oil" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "crude_oil", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "crude_oil" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-crude-001", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Near-term (6h\u201324h) risk premium remains elevated for Brent due to persistent Middle East geopolitical/security headlines and maritime route/chokepoint sensitivity.", "probability_pct": 63, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Geopolitical conflict cluster (US/Iran/Iraq/UAE)", "Maritime security / UKMTO incident flow", "Strait of Hormuz chokepoint sensitivity" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-crude-002" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-crude-002", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Macro-demand downside chatter (recession-risk framing) can cap upside and increase pullback probability if headlines de-escalate.", "probability_pct": 44, "direction": "down", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Macro demand risk signals (low-corroboration VIP lane)", "Policy/macro sensitivity (US policy headline channel)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-crude-001" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-crude-003", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Directional skew is bullish, but path is headline-driven; abrupt reversals are plausible on any credible de-escalation or supply reassurance update.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Event-driven geopolitics", "Authority-mix dispersion (A-tier mixed with lower-tier amplification)", "Shipping/freight disruption narratives" ], "contradicted_by": [] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "crude_oil", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-crude-001", "B-crude-003" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Geopolitics/maritime-security driven pricing can reverse quickly on de-escalation headlines." }, { "flag": "authority_mix_dispersion", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Evidence bundles show meaningful low-authority share/echo-risk pockets; treat marginal signals as fragile until corroborated." }, { "flag": "macro_demand_downside_tail", "severity": "low", "detail": "Macro recession-risk signals exist but are thin/low-diversity versus the dominant security-risk cluster." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "crude_oil", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If maritime/security incident cadence persists or escalates over the next 6\u201312 hours without credible de-escalation signals." }, { "market": "crude_oil", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "If high-authority sources publish conflicting escalation/de-escalation updates within the same 1\u20132 hour window." }, { "market": "crude_oil", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If a credible de-escalation / supply-reassurance update arrives and is rapidly echoed across multiple A-tier outlets." }, { "market": "crude_oil", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If contradiction increases materially while fresh evidence count drops (headline silence) for >6 hours." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "crude_oil" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 19, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 19, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 17, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 17, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 16, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 42, "net_sentiment_score": 16, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 31, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 71, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 52, "bullish_pressure_score": 76, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 52, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 56, "bullish_pressure_score": 78, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 56, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 60, "bullish_pressure_score": 80, "bearish_pressure_score": 20, "net_sentiment_score": 60, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 64, "bullish_pressure_score": 82, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 64, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 74, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 66, "bullish_pressure_score": 83, "bearish_pressure_score": 17, "net_sentiment_score": 66, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 76, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 66, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 16, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 14, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "No explicit contradictions provided in inputs; reversal risk set to MEDIUM primarily from event-driven headline fragility rather than measured contradiction spikes.", "Prior market state not provided; state_change assumes neutral baseline -> new_bullish." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }